The latest edition of Financial Orbit Highlights

Please find a link to the latest edition of Financial Orbit Highlights here
 

‘Interesting times for the last Highlights

In its current form this will be the last Highlights with the launch of new and improved variant next week.  What a week to finish this format on though with equity market peaks and volatile foreign exchange markets.  I doubt if it will last though and I cite a few sources why this is likely to be the case…including one from a potentially surprising source.

So what were my highlights of the last week? 

• Global – world index near-peaks & yet wages go nowhere
• Global – the average person is not really getting richer
• FX – the dollar goes up and up…very quickly
• Earnings – keep on watching those S&P 500 earnings
• US – will ‘buy on the dips’ keep markets up?
• And finally: wise words from the bond markets…and the Greek finance minister

Chris Bailey                                                                                 
Founder, Financial Orbit Limited

Email: chris.bailey@financialorbit.com
Web: www.financialorbit.com
Twitter: @financial_orbit

The latest edition of Financial Orbit Highlights is out

Please find a link to the latest edition of Financial Orbit Highlights here

‘The kicking the can down the road edition’

So - apparently - there is some element of a deal for Greece although the more I read about it the more I think that it is nothing really more than kicking the can down the road for four months at most. The trouble is that it does not get to the heart of the problem: debts that still need to be serviced or refinanced.  Given the only viable solution is a restructuring (which will have other repercussions) I really struggle to see how ultimately this is nothing more than a sticking plaster.

Stay tuned: you are going to have to.

So what were my other highlights of the last week?
 

• Europe – can kicking doesn’t sort the Greek situation
• Global – QE is everything to an unproductive financial sector
• Global – land gets more expensive but you aren’t getting wage increases
• Global – dividends flat-line and all hail the rise of ‘non OECD Asia’!
• Global – economic surprises are basically funded by China
• And finally: when you are on edge buy protection (it is cheaper again)

 

Chris Bailey                                                                                 
Founder, Financial Orbit Limited

Email: chris.bailey@financialorbit.com
Web: www.financialorbit.com
Twitter: @financial_orbit

The latest edition of Financial Orbit Highlights is out

Please find a link to the latest edition of Financial Orbit Highlights here

‘It’s dichotomy time!’

In global financial markets a fundamental dichotomy continues with uncertainties persisting over Greece, (despite the tentative deal) Russia/Ukraine and, of course, forward earnings momentum.  Meanwhile a variety of markets across all major continents were hitting new highs…

That feels unsustainable to me and hence why I strongly believe the themes for 2015 are volatility and individual position selection.


So what were my other highlights of the last week?
 

• US – P/Es versus earnings
• Global – institutional investors ignore debt
• Europe – Mrs Merkel works hard but European growth is shabby
• Fixed income – bonds aren’t going to return a lot but investors pursue junk
• China – low inflation and just look at those brokerage accounts!
• Japan – it just is not working Mr Abe
• And finally…don’t get stressed so buy gold

Chris Bailey                                                                                 
Founder, Financial Orbit

Email: chris.bailey@financialorbit.com
Web: www.financialorbit.com
Twitter: @financial_orbit

The latest edition of Financial Orbit Highlights is out

Please find a link to the latest edition of Financial Orbit Highlights here

‘The best news is that investors are less bullish’

In the glow of the US jobs number on Friday (don't hold your breath for a quick interest rate rise in my view)...let's get back to some realities: the S&P 500 index is struggling to decisively break the 2,000 index point level.

So what were my other highlights of the last week?

• US – fading investor confidence is as good as it gets
• US #2 – challenges to growth
• Bonds – trust is low…and bond yields are ultra-low
• Global – inflation will come as debt is high
• China – more rate cuts to come
• Investing – there’s a future in proper active investing

Chris Bailey                                                                                 
Founder, Financial Orbit

Email: chris.bailey@financialorbit.com
Web: www.financialorbit.com
Twitter: @financial_orbit

The latest edition of Financial Orbit Highlights is out

Please find a link to the latest edition of Financial Orbit Highlights here

‘All that effort just to support a desperate neutrality…’

The first Highlights since mid-January due to travel finds the global financial markets at a similar point to which we left it: troubled and hence volatile.  Still opportunistic too of course but you need to be brave, skilled or lucky (or maybe all three…).

So what were my highlights of the last week?
 

• US – confidence AND dumping earnings momentum;
• FX – currencies matter and they are volatile;
• Global – the growth and QE dance;
• Japan – Abenomics’ shabbiness continues;
• Europe – Greece, negative bond yields and the flight for junk;
• China – services hopes versus industrial realities;
• China #2 – what currency are you wiring with?;
• And finally…working hard for a neutral result

Chris Bailey                                                                                 
Founder, Financial Orbit

Email: chris.bailey@financialorbit.com
Web: www.financialorbit.com
Twitter: @financial_orbit

The latest edition of Financial Orbit Highlights is out

Please find a link to the latest edition of Financial Orbit Highlights here

‘Volatility and fearful investors’

In newsflow terms not a heavy last week but as for market volatility...it was a fascinating one essentially sequentially down, down, up, up, down...and ultimately (in the S&P500 index) only slightly down for the week.  Interesting times ahead of the earnings season deluge due over the next few weeks.

So what were my highlights of the last week?
 

• US – market volatility and fading momentum;
• US #2 – if wages don’t go up then neither will interest rates;
• Global – follow the youthful population;
• Emerging markets – disliked but look at the fundamentals;
• China – taking advantage of volatility to economically change;
• Europe/Japan – in one chart why they have a problem;
• Europe #2 – the “Grexit” chart says it all;
• And finally…Monsanto speaks about agriculture & watch out on a Friday

Chris Bailey                                                                                 
Founder, Financial Orbit

Email: chris.bailey@financialorbit.com
Web: www.financialorbit.com
Twitter: @financial_orbit

The latest Financial Orbit Highlights is out

Please find a link to the latest edition of Financial Orbit Highlights here

‘15 Macro Thoughts for 2015’

Happy New Year.

For the first Financial Orbit Highlights of the new year something a little different: 15 macro thoughts for 2015.  Last year was a fascinating one for global markets and 2015 is going to be no different in my view with volatility, opportunities and distinct themes.  Best of luck to all.

Chris Bailey                                                                                 
Founder, Financial Orbit

Email: chris.bailey@financialorbit.com
Web: www.financialorbit.com
Twitter: @financial_orbit

The latest edition of Financial Orbit Highlights is out

Please find a link to the latest edition of Financial Orbit Highlights here

‘The Santa Claus rally says Merry Christmas’

A hugely volatile week for markets which started with a Russian crisis and ended with the much-maligned S&P 500 Energy sector being up 11.7% from Tuesday's low and a feeling of a leveraged Santa Claus rally move.  Despite the second Greek Presidential Parliamentary vote due next week I expect a relatively quiet pre-Christmas market. Why though do I have this niggling thought in my mind that there is going to be something 'excitable' to report from newsflow on the 25th/26th? It really has been that sort of year…

So what have been my highlights of the last week?

• US: Janet may have said the right things but scrape below the surface..;
• Why Economists are not as obese as other professions;
• Europe: Russia bounces back (in 2017) and Russians wish they had bought gold;
• Asia: challenges in Japan, excessive optimism in China;
• Bonds: junk bonds tells us something whilst Greece maps the way for Venezuela;
• 2015: going to be all about volatility, opportunities, a trading focus and nerve

As this will be the last Highlights of 2014 (back on the first Saturday of January 2015) I would just like to wish all readers a Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays and all the best for the New Year.  Daily updates throughout the holiday season will be available – as always – on www.financialorbit.com


Chris Bailey                                                                                 
Founder, Financial Orbit

Email: chris.bailey@financialorbit.com
Web: www.financialorbit.com
Twitter: @financial_orbit

This week's Financial Orbit Highlights has just been published

Please find a link to the latest edition of Financial Orbit Highlights here

‘Did you enjoy the unseasonal stock market volatility?’

Not a very December-like stock market was it last week?  With the S&P 500’s worst week since May 2012 and a new closing low for the yield on the 10-year Treasury I am not quite sure where all those 'December is generally a gliding up month' comments are now...

For what it is worth I actually do believe the market may revert to a 'gliding up' notion for the balance of December (even with the upcoming Greek Parliamentary election) but I doubt very much whether it will regain in full the month-to-date losses.

So what have been my highlights of the last week?
 

• US small businesses get back to average confidence levels;
• Worries #1: Shanghai volatility and Greek debt restructuring fears;
• Worries #2: high global P/Es and US dollar distortion fears;
• UK lacklustre real wages mean the Bank of England aren’t acting soon;
• Looking ahead to ’15: history’s OPEC guide & great news for active managers;
• Final thought: the late December Santa Claus rally probably will start soon

Feel free to contact me on any aspect of the above…or anything else in fact.

Chris Bailey                                                                                 
Founder, Financial Orbit

Email: chris.bailey@financialorbit.com
Web: www.financialorbit.com
Twitter: @financial_orbit

The new Financial Orbit Highlights is out!

Please find a link to the latest edition of Financial Orbit Highlights here

‘A busy start to December’

A lot stood out for me during the last week: the rampant Chinese market, the plummeting Japanese yen, the farce of the latest ECB monthly conference and the US economy still creating jobs.  December a quiet month?  Forget it…

So what have been my highlights of the last week?

• China sees red leading to crazy market volumes;
• Asia really does save (and the emerging markets are cheap);
• US: creating jobs but a stock market valuation bubble too;
• Europe cuts growth and inflation hopes…but at least it is not Russia;
• The UK Autumn Statement is suitably mixed;
• There’s no (seasonal) need to be depressed at all!

Feel free to contact me on any aspect of the above…or anything else in fact.

Chris Bailey                                                                                 
Founder, Financial Orbit

Email: chris.bailey@financialorbit.com
Web: www.financialorbit.com
Twitter: @financial_orbit

The latest edition of Financial Orbit Highlights is out

Please find a link to the latest edition of Financial Orbit Highlights here

‘Signalling, excitements and disruptions – never a boring financial markets moment’

Well November was an interesting month.  In my latest Yahoo Finance Contributors column (link here) I talked about some of my learnings from the last twenty nine days.  Uppermost amongst them was a feeling that sentiment had become a little too uniformly bullish and hence opportunities are more of a stockpicking nature than index buy and hold focused.  As always the broader markets will have their say over time. Daily more views on this can be found on www.financialorbit.com.

So what have been my highlights of the last week?
 

• The US: strong GDP, long duration bull market…and social unrest;
• A cautious signalling from real bond yields;
• Greece continues to march to its own (riskier) tune;
• So if you were OPEC what would you choose to do?;
• Asian currency excitements;
• Welcome to GAFA…disrupting the world we all know

Feel free to contact me on any aspect of the above…or anything else in fact.

Chris Bailey                                                                                 
Founder, Financial Orbit

Email: chris.bailey@financialorbit.com
Web: www.financialorbit.com
Twitter: @financial_orbit

The new edition of Financial Orbit Highlights is out

Please find a link to the latest edition of Financial Orbit Highlights here

‘Imbalances but opportunities’

A month ago global equity markets were in a state of complete panic.  Four weeks later markets are substantially up, sentiment has hugely recovered and investors are generally looking forward again to 2015…especially in the US.  Despite the market recovery of recent weeks the world remains clearly imbalanced.  That’s not to say there are now things to be doing and the technology, food retail and gold sectors were of particular interest to me this week.  More information, as always, on www.financialorbit.com.

So what have been my highlights of the last week?
 

• The US: record highs, record recent positive sentiment, record inequality;
• Get your magnifying glass out: UK real wage growth!;
• Europe: Greece grows more than Germany;
• China slows, Japan doesn’t want to raise taxes and the most insightful photo in Asia;
• Technology offers opportunities;
• Food retailers and gold are coming back in from the gold

Feel free to contact me on any aspect of the above…or anything else in fact.

Chris Bailey                                                                                 
Founder, Financial Orbit
Email: chris.bailey@financialorbit.com
Web: www.financialorbit.com
Twitter: @financial_orbit

The latest edition of Financial Orbit Highlights is out

Please find a link to the latest edition of Financial Orbit Highlights here

‘Looking for a consistent global view? Forget it’ 

There’s a lot going on at the moment.  The impact of the US mid-term elections, implications from the monthly ECB meeting in Europe, changes in Russian, Japanese and Chinese policy-making plus volatility in foreign exchange rates and commodities and the ongoing Q3 earnings season (of course).  If you pull it all together a casual observer would conclude that the differentials and challenges are building.  Funny how not much of this is reflected in investor sentiment or volatility measures.  Maybe that’s the dulling impact of expanding global QE.  It feels to me much more of a specific world than that.

So what have been my highlights of the last week?
 

• The US: bumper results season…but negligible wage growth;
• Political uncertainty and investor certainty;
• Europe: filling the balance sheet gap…
• …to nascent political parties;
• The rise and rise of the yuan (and draconian pollution controls);
• Alibaba and Randgold impress;
• Oil is kicking around an 8 year low

Feel free to contact me on any aspect of the above…or anything else in fact.

Chris Bailey                                                                                 
Founder, Financial Orbit
Email: chris.bailey@financialorbit.com
Web: www.financialorbit.com
Twitter: @financial_orbit

The latest edition of Financial Orbit Highlights is out

If you would like to receive a pdf copy and are not on the mailing list please contact me

‘Keep the faith despite volatility: there are things to be doing’

Well that was a volatile week!  As Fast FT noted though due to the bounce back on Friday it was not a wipe out week for index trackers:

'The gains, though, weren't enough to erase losses for the week, with both the S&P 500 and Dow 1 per cent lower over the past five days – the fourth consecutive week of declines’

So what have been my highlights of the last week?

·         Google, GE and Honeywell talk positively…

·         …but real incomes decline like never before;

·         So do you believe in stock picking?;

·         The Euro-Area continues to have challenges;

·         Is a low oil price unsustainable, a threat or an opportunity?

Feel free to contact me on any aspect of the above…or anything else in fact.

Chris Bailey                                                                                  

Founder, Financial Orbit

Email: chris.bailey@financialorbit.com

Web: www.financialorbit.com

Twitter: @financial_orbit

The new edition of Financial Orbit Highlights is out

If you would like to join the email distribution list for Highlights please contact me

‘Macro volatility, company level opportunity’

What a week: fear, some bouts of greed, building uncertainty and geopolitical whatevers.  For the market strategist, stock picker or plain interested amateur it was also a week of huge investment discovery but, over a reasonable time period, potential opportunity too. 

So what have been my highlights of the last week?

·         Some dry humour from Mr Draghi;

·         A stunning European deflation risk chart;

·         Is QE4 coming?;

·         The US is NOT the source of global imbalance;

·         Welcome to the world’s new largest economy;

·         An ok start to the earnings season

Feel free to contact me on any aspect of the above…or anything else in fact. 

Chris Bailey                                                                                  

Founder, Financial Orbit

Email: chris.bailey@financialorbit.com

Web: www.financialorbit.com

Twitter: @financial_orbit

The latest edition of Financial Orbit Highlights is out

If you would like a copy and are not on the email distribution list then please contact me

‘So what do you do in the “new mediocre” era?’

I should have thought of the phrase myself but Christine Lagarde’s observation that the clear risk for the global economy is of an extended ‘new mediocre’ era fits with many of my observations about the world.  Investment life, however, is not about extended pessimism and the most important observation has to be that it will mean individual investment opportunities – namely stock picking – become more important.  This edition of Highlights will focus a little more on a few favoured names. 

So what have been my highlights of the last week?

·         The good news is that global PMIs are strong…

·         …but the ‘new mediocre’ is lurking;

·         The world’s largest fund management group is worried;

·         Oil at an interesting level and Saudi are barely covering their budget;

·         High yield still backing up;

·         October and volatility historically are friends;

·         It is a stock picking world…so a few thoughts

Feel free to contact me on any aspect of the above…or anything else in fact.

Chris Bailey                                                                                  

Founder, Financial Orbit

Email: chris.bailey@financialorbit.com

Web: www.financialorbit.com

Twitter: @financial_orbit

The latest edition of Financial Orbit Highlights is out

If you would like to be added to the mailing list please contact me using the details below:

‘Travel broadens the mind’

It has been a couple of weeks or so since the last Highlights.  Life has been busy including a good amount of travel…which always inspires.  Next week’s Highlights – the first in October – will take the insights from this travel and associated discussions and focus on the top investments to make for the rest of this year and into 2015. 

So what have been my highlights of the last week?

·         A positive US bond market signal…

·         …but still an unbalanced wealth distribution;

·         Europe and Japan still don’t feel right;

·         Asia hopes for a boost from the US;

·         Mr Market remains narrow;

·         It is a stock picking world…with all the opportunities and threats that suggests

Chris Bailey                                                                                  

Founder, Financial Orbit

Email: chris.bailey@financialorbit.com

Web: www.financialorbit.com

Twitter: @financial_orbit

The new edition of Financial Orbit Highlights is out

If you would like to be added to the email distribution list please contact me. 

‘Signals and more signals’

In the wider scheme of things, hitting 100,000 page views is no huge accomplishment but having only celebrated the first anniversary of www.financialorbit.com around six weeks ago, I am really pleased with how the website has built up. Thanks to everyone who has viewed or contributed in some shape or form since mid-July 2013.  

However I feel this is only the start.  In the last few weeks I have made some innovations on the site in terms of style, presentation and use of guest writers.  This will continue thanks mostly to some excellent advice I sought out a few weeks ago.  So please keep reading, interacting and commenting. So much to be thankful for...but also much to do.

So what have been my highlights of the last week?

·         Multi-year highs in London but no real wage growth;

·         Europe starts on the road to full QE;

·         Volatility looms for Japan as the economic crisis mounts;

·         Other signals: iron ore, US margins and patchy jobs data;

·         Mr Putin remains popular

Feel free to contact me on any aspect of the above…or anything else in fact.

Chris Bailey                                                                                

Founder, Financial Orbit

 

Email: chris.bailey@financialorbit.com

Web: www.financialorbit.com

Twitter: @financial_orbit

The latest edition of Financial Orbit Highlights is out

If you would like a receive a copy but are not on the distribution list please contact me using the details below.

‘Thinking globally, but worrying globally too’

When I was trying to think of a name, in the weeks before the launch of my business in July last year, I thought about my own journey from a Europe-only focus to a global one.  This – and the name of a Miles Davis track – led me to Financial Orbit and the use of a globe as the fledgling company’s symbol.  Thinking globally can seem to be a huge informational challenge…but it is the only way to really get a feel for what is going on. 

So what have been my highlights of the last week?

·         Sentiment remains awesome but…

·         The US: modest real wages and continued deficits;

·         Europe: Germany rolls over;

·         Japan: shabby, shabby consumption progress;

·         China: property and iron ore signals;

·         Roll on September…maybe not;

·         Be thankful for the growth of the internet

Feel free to contact me on any aspect of the above…or anything else in fact.

Chris Bailey                                                                                  

Founder, Financial Orbit

 

Email: chris.bailey@financialorbit.com

Web: www.financialorbit.com

Twitter: @financial_orbit

The latest edition of Financial Orbit Highlights is out

** If you would like a copy of the full 8 page pdf document please contact me **

‘Thoughts from Jackson Hole…we are still in a hole’

The temptation for even the most committed of financial professionals to sneak off away from their desks and financial information terminals would have been very high last week if it had not been for the start of the Jackson Hole summit. Mario Draghi stole the show despite a second tier billing indicating again that what is happening in the European economy does matter no matter where you reside.  We stay in interesting times…with all the positive and negative connotations that this observation brings. 

So what have been my highlights of the last week?

·         Draghi’s last chart indicates these are not normal times;

·         Still…it was ‘risk on’ time (again);

·         High sector valuations and geopolitics: shrug the shoulders;

·         Job security…and mortgage affordability;

·         China will bail us out, won’t they?;

·         Back to the start: we are in a hole

 

Feel free to contact me on any aspect of the above…or anything else in fact.

Chris Bailey                                                                                  

Founder, Financial Orbit

Email: chris.bailey@financialorbit.com

Web: www.financialorbit.com

Twitter: @financial_orbit