Monday, 17 October 2016

What I wrote to new contacts I made at the London Investor Show

This is what I wrote to new contacts I made at the London Investor Show which I attended and presented at last Friday. 

It was a pleasure to meet so many attendees of the London Investor Show last Friday and I hoped you enjoyed the day too. 
You are receiving this email because you indicated that you would like to receive some more information on Financial Orbit's range of content products for individual investors.  
I created Financial Orbit in 2013 after a successful career in global fund management because I wanted to get back to the basics of research, analysis and investment theme interpretation and away from packed meeting schedules and committees with little worth.  You can learn more about my story, my investment philosophy and the creation of Financial Orbit at as well as via an interview I gave which is available at this link
The world today is a complex, confusing place which requires clear sighted interpretations of the torrent of information out there which impact the investments we all hold in our pension funds and ISAs. To help you build both insight and wealth over time you will receive for a trial period until early November free of charge with no obligation two emails five days a week:
Financial Orbit Macro - your one-stop shop for a daily global macro briefing
Financial Orbit Stocks - core and mainstream global direct equities of interest 
Additionally you will have access to a special webinar in early November where I will review not only recent investment trends and talk about some of my current favourite global equities but also have a Q&A facility so you can ask anything you are worried and concerned about. And finally you are always welcome to reach out directly to me on your investment queries and I will give you my best thoughts on a no liability basis.   
Keep in touch too with some free content at including recently a link to my latest column forYahoo Finance titled ‘Care about global shares? Then pray for Europe…’( ).  And if you enjoy listening to the radio you can listen to me on Share Radio talking about finance, economics, companies and politics between 6 and 9am every Tuesday and Wednesday morning (Share Radio's radioplayer for live listening is available here ).
Finally I have attached a copy of the presentation I gave at the London Investor Show about ten major upcoming investment themes for the next year 
**(Chris here - if you are reading this and would like a copy of the presentation document then please email me). **
Thank you again for your interest and I look forward to helping you build your investment knowledge and wealth over time. 
Chris Bailey
Founder, Financial Orbit Limited
Twitter: @financial_orbit

Saturday, 15 October 2016

"Care about global shares? Then pray for Europe"

I am really pleased to have started writing a regular column for Yahoo UK/Ireland on finance and the investment markets.  You can find here my latest column titled:

Care about global shares?  Then pray for Europe

Friday, 14 October 2016

On the Vox Markets podcast talking about Sky, Easyjet, Randgold and Unilever/Tesco

I appeared again on the Vox Markets podcast.  You can listen here to my latest appearance where I talked about Sky, Easyjet, Randgold and Unilever/Tesco all of which have been in the news / are at noteworthy share prices.  

Thursday, 13 October 2016

Final reminder about the free-to-attend London Investor Show on Friday 14th October

**Final reminder!**

Do you want to come and hear for free some thoughts about what investment themes will influence your portfolio in 2017?  Then come along to the London Investor Show on Friday 14th October.

You can read all about the London Investor Show here but there are three key opportunities for you, for free to take specific advantage of. 

First, come and hear me speak just after the show opens at 9.35am

Speaker: Chris Bailey, Financial Orbit

Drawing on his experience of 20 years in the fund management industry, Chris Bailey of Financial Orbit will discuss the ten big global investment themes that will impact your portfolios over the next year.  Covering asset allocation, sector selection and even individual share level insights, Chris will take you on a whistle stop tour of the global financial markets to help you prepare your portfolios for the opportunities and challenges ahead as well as answering your questions and addressing your concerns in a free for all Q&A session.

Second, come and meet me and the rest of the team and talk about your investment concerns at the Financial Orbit stand at the London Investor Show.  Ask about whatever is on your mind...and for everyone who comes to the stand and provides their contact details you can pick up your limited edition free gift

Third, do all of this for free by using the special offer I have negotiated for any readers of this message.  

A really nice infographic with all the details to attend the show can be accessed here

It is going to be a fascinating day on the 14th October - looking forward to see as many of you as possible there! 

Sunday, 9 October 2016

Stories we should be thinking about

Ahead of the new working week here are a few finance and related stories to be thinking about.

Macro matters:

No surprises that the IMF Communique from their annual meeting was a bit same old, same old:  

"The persistently low growth has exposed underlying structural weaknesses and risks further dampening potential growth and prospects for inclusiveness," the IMF's steering committee said in a communique following its annual meeting in Washington...We reinforce our commitment to strong, sustainable, inclusive, job-rich and more balanced growth. We will use all policy tools - structural reforms, fiscal and monetary policies - both individually and collectively."

But actually is the world economy in such a bad space as a few years ago?  Apparently not...

Well the glass is always half-full...

Turning to the US economy, I see that the surprise index has neutralised up...dangerous if the US dollar goes up any more in my view... for Friday's NFP data it was a bit of a shrug of the shoulders. Still the big trend remains suppressed initial claims and labour force participation: 

Meanwhile we await the next Presidential election debate later today meanwhile there is lots of interesting information and scenario analysis is this Newsweek article entitled: 'TRUMP IN TURMOIL: 5 WAYS FORWARD FOR THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL RACE'.  

Lunacy from the world's largest fund manager BlackrockThis report noted that 'the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) , my preferred leading indicator, recently fell back into negative territory…I have watched this indicator long enough to know that it is telling us something and it merits our attention'.  Hmm...seems to have been in negative mode for quite a while...not an indicator that I particularly like personally. 

Turning to the European economy I see that the Financial Times has done some nice analysis on the potential beneficiaries in the financial sector from Brexit.  Germany is the winner...

...a warning that the UK economy may struggle in a harder Brexit scenario.  So far the local economy has been aided by the lower Pound and the boost to manufacturing...

Of course on the lower Pound read my article on Yahoo Finance titled:

Stop panicking about the Pound…it is now too cheap

Meanwhile in asset allocation bonds have been poor performers as noted in the couple of charts below: 


Give me an opportunistic selection of equities rather than fixed income at the moment.  But what about gold? I generally have concluded that a sensible pension allocation is to have around 10% exposed to precious metals - a strategy that has worked well this year to date.  

Nevertheless a poor week for precious metals last week and @Smaulgld muses here that the Chinese holiday may have had an impact.  Generally though gold demand has not been what it was previously in some key emerging / important markets...

(Shanghai Gold Exchange Withdrawals, Russian Gold Reserves, Indian Gold Imports and Turkish Gold Imports)

Fascinating post on fertility and robots here including the observation that: 

'The fertility rate in Japan is at 1.46 as of 2015, which is the highest level since 1994. The fertility rate is measured by number of childbirths per woman. It is generally considered that fertility rates need to be at 2.1 to sustain population'

China's services sector created jobs at the fastest pace in seven months in September as new business picked up, even as Caixin/Markit's services PMI slipped fractionally to 52.0, from 52.1 in August.  That sounds workable...

Think you know China? A couple of interesting facts via @east_asia_forum around the geopolitics of China from this report.  As I have noted before China plays the long game better than anyone...

'of the US$5.3 trillion in trade that passes through the South China Sea each year, around US$4 trillion is to and from China. Obviously, it has no interest in blocking this...success that China is having in moving up global value chains is evidenced by its share of world trade reaching 14.6 per cent last year, a huge leap from 12.9 per cent just one year earlier'

Nice via @SimonLack on why the US becoming a natural gas exporter is a game changer

Sector and companies: 

S&P 500 earnings continue to exhibit the pattern of muted in 2016 but the age old hope of n+1 double digit growth...

I would agree with @TomWinnifrith that Misys is one UK returning IPO to be sceptical of (link here):

'Anyone can buy sales and earnings growth if you borrow and buy enough. But does that make Misys a good business? How will it cope when base rates rise? The same management who inspired no love back in 2012 are still at the helm, will they do any better this time?'

And some further UK corporate stories via The Sunday Times

Hard Brexit to cost 2,000 Goldman jobs: Goldman Sachs is preparing to move almost 2,000 highly paid staff out of London if the government opts for a “hard” break from the EU.

Leaving EU could delay new drugs, warns Astra chief: The Chief Executive of Astra Zeneca has warned that patients could face delays in receiving life-saving medicines unless a common drug-approval system is agreed during Brexit talks.

Fraud squad digs deeper into ENRC: The Serious Fraud Office has ramped up its investigation into ENRC after a landmark £331 million bribery settlement in America.

William Hill and Amaya in talks to create £4.6 billion betting giant: The UK’s William Hill and Canada’s Amaya are in discussions that could lead to a £4.6 billion all share merger to create one of the world’s largest gambling companies, as the groups become swept up in the wave of consolidation hitting the betting industry.


GKN warns of job losses in blow to Britain’s helicopter industry: Britain’s helicopter industry was dealt a new blow on Friday after GKN sent 230 workers at its Somerset factory home early and told them to expect significant jobs losses.

And via the SCMP:

Alibaba Group’s financial affiliate has appointed a new chief executive officer as it prepares for a highly anticipated 2017 initial public offering...The management shuffle comes as Ant Financial is said to plan an IPO in Hong Kong next year, which could be one of the city’s biggest debuts since 2010. Since its inception as the operator of Alipay, Ant Financial – an online payments system with 450 million active users – has expanded into wealth management, credit scoring and peer-to-peer lending.

Well that sounds an exciting tech IPO to come...just as Snapchat could be: 

And finally...

Thanks to @GreekAnalyst for this and the brilliant one word description: 'KARMA'!

And a final reminder that for the direct stock investors among you please access my 'Q3 performance and Q4 ideas webinar recording/chart presentation' here.

Have a good week 

Saturday, 8 October 2016

"Stop panicking about the Pound…it is now too cheap"

I am really pleased to have started writing a regular column for Yahoo UK/Ireland on finance and the investment markets.  You can find here my latest column titled:

Stop panicking about the Pound…it is now too cheap

Friday, 7 October 2016

Q3 performance and Q4 ideas webinar recording - available to all!

For those of you who could not listen to the webinar earlier where I...
  • Discussed why my preferred list stocks significantly beat benchmarks in Q3
  • Reviewed changes I have made to my preferred list stocks for Q4
  • Mused on why I think there are still significant money-making opportunities for stock pickers can now listen to a recording of the whole webinar / follow the slides by clicking the link here.

If you would like to discuss further OR receive a copy of the slides directly then please just send me an email at