Saturday, 22 November 2014

Trades I have undertaken in the last week

A week that ended - at least in equity index move terms with a BANG via positive rhetoric out of Europe and a Chinese interest rate cut.  And look where it took markets: the FTSE100 is around a percent or so away from re-obtaining that 6,800+ level that has proved such a resistance point over the last year or so...

...meanwhile the Stoxx 600 index (in euro terms) is back in that 340-350 range:


Interesting times for stock pickers in Europe.  Despite the positive seasonals at the moment I am not convinced either of the above indices will 'break through'...and this has influenced some of the my trading below: 

Positions initiated or added to, shorts bought back partially or in full

EU volatility - position added following the extremity of the European market move on Friday

VIX volatility - same rationale as the EU volatility position above, this time for the US market 


Positions sold partially or in full, shorts initiated or added to

Australian index - into the optimism of the end of last week

Randgold - just took the top off my trading position.  All core medium-term positions maintained: still the best gold company in the world by some distance.  

Staples - as with Randgold, took the top off the position following their Q3 results publication (which I intend to write up tomorrow)

The most popular posts of the last week

Here are the five most popular posts on www.financialorbit.com over the last week plus a bonus posting of one that does not appear on the list.

1. The always popular weekly Sunday early evening GMT Stories we should be thinking about was the most popular post.  Link here.

2. A collection of charts and related covering Australian miners, bonds, China and the internet was the second most popular post.  Link here.

3. The daily Wrap from Thursday covering the yen, AAII index, manufacturing PMIs and the growth of the internet was the third most popular post.  Link here.

4. The daily Wrap from Monday covering options expiry, my latest Yahoo Finance contributors column and the Halliburton/Baker Hughes merger was the fourth most popular post.  Link here.

5. A charts today selection was the fifth most popular post.  Link here.

And a bonus posting that did not appear in the top five is this one titled ''The Demography of Inequality in the United States".

Financial Orbit wrap 21/11/14

Five sentences or graphics which sum up the Financial Orbit output over the last 24 hours across the website, twitter account and anything else thought about...

What a busy week...and another 'late' wrap. 

1. I muse about recent 'talk' by policy makers in Japan and Europe...whilst in China there is action in my latest Yahoo Finance Contributors column (link here). 



2. Politics...the indicated malaise in UK politics of 'none of the above' leading:


3. European politics...still testy. They will get to QE eventually but don't expect it to be easy:



 4. As the over focus on 'high quality growth' in the BoA-ML survey earlier this week showed cyclicals will eventually become the trade.



 5. And finally...have a good weekend (well, it has already started!)


Friday, 21 November 2014

"Jaw-jaw and economic war-war: Japan, Europe talk whilst China act"

My latest post as a Yahoo Finance Contributor titled "Jaw-jaw and economic war-war: Japan, Europe talk whilst China act" can be found here.

Thursday, 20 November 2014

Financial Orbit wrap 20/11/14

Five sentences or graphics which sum up the Financial Orbit output over the last 24 hours across the website, twitter account and anything else thought about...

All Twitter-based impressions today...second busy day 'away from the desk' broadly speaking in a row.  

1. I remain short the yen so I smiled at this via @hedgeye


2. The AAII index remains highly bullish (hence contrarian bearish) although not quite as excitable as the last couple of weeks


3. Interesting manufacturing PMI numbers over time...US clearly better: 

 (h/t @Callum_Thomas)

4. The flipside of a strong US dollar?

(h/t @SBarlow_Rob)


5. The growth of the internet


Financial Orbit wrap 19/11/14

Five sentences or graphics which sum up the Financial Orbit output over the last 24 hours across the website, twitter account and anything else thought about...

The 'mother-of-all' late wraps...it has been a busy last 24 hours.  So in quick summary...

1. The Australian mining industry is probably going to go through some rationalisation:


2.  Will India grow faster than China by 2016?


3. I muse here why scrapping quarterly reporting is a bad idea. 

4. I attend the Ira Sohn conference...and most interesting it was too. 


(h/t @CVaughanPR)

5.  Are the FOMC really thinking so much about the second derivative impact of their comments on markets?!

(h/t @boes_)

"Something UK companies should learn from Europe (and the rest of the world)"

I wrote a piece titled "Something UK companies should learn from Europe (and the rest of the world)" which was uploaded just now to the ShareProphets website.  You can find a link to the piece (free sign-up) here.