Thursday, 23 June 2016

"Chemring and the long-term ‘peace time’ rate"

I wrote a piece titled "Chemring and the long-term ‘peace time’ rate" which was uploaded just now to the ShareProphets website.  A link to the piece (free sign-up) is here.

"It is not all about the referendum today: DS Smith’s mega numbers"

I wrote a piece titled "It is not all about the referendum today: DS Smith’s mega numbers" which was uploaded just now to the ShareProphets website.  A link to the piece (free sign-up) is here.

Monday, 20 June 2016

Financial Orbit on Bloomberg Radio

Earlier today (Monday) I appeared on Bloomberg Radio and talked with Nejra Cehic about the yen, Brexit and markets (among many other matters).  You can listen to the podcast here.  Always very good fun to do something like this...and nicely complementary to 'my usual' Tuesday and Wednesday morning co-presenting roles on Share Radio (you can access their 'radioplayer' here). 

Sunday, 19 June 2016

Stories we should be thinking about

Ahead of the new working week here are a few finance and related stories to be thinking about.

Macro matters:

A volatile last week...

...and here we are less than a week to go to the UK's EU referendum and the polling remains very tight...

(h/t @MSmithsonPB)

...even if the views of economists are pretty uniform: a Brexit would not be economically good news: 

And what may happen in the event of a Brexit is potentially complex to say the least: 

And there is a wide range of events that could happen:

All in all no surprise that there has been a large outflow in UK equity funds: 

And as the Financial Times notes the amount of M&A deals have fallen off...

Britain’s share of global merger and acquisition activity has tumbled to a record low, as dealmaking freezes amid the uncertainty over the UK’s membership of the EU.
The volume of deals involving UK targets is down almost 70 per cent this year compared with the same period in 2015, with the $57.6bn spent on transactions accounting for only 4 per cent of worldwide M&A.

Elsewhere I wonder what Janet Yellen will say on Tuesday in her semi-annual testimony before the Senate Banking Committee?  Explaining the dot plot no doubt...

Let's see what Janet Yellen says about prices and interest rates going forward...however I liked this in terms of trying to identify potential opportunities in inflation friendly assets.  Certainly that is where value investors should be looking...

(h/t @TihoBrkan)

This made me smile about energy policy...

(h/t @PatriciaLilyS)

...and potentially the future more commercial orientation of Greece: 

Of course we know that the ECB is keeping its balance sheet loose: 

A rationale for the Japanese to have safes as provided by the Financial Times

 I see the well-respected Indian Central Bank governor is to resign later this year (link here).  It will be insightful to see how the local stock market responds to this news on Monday...

Sector and companies: 

Via Seeking Alpha...'The weekend box office tally for Disney's Finding Dory set a record for an animated movie as the film dominated the three-day period (3X second place Central Intelligence)'.  I still like Disney stock sub US$100/share. 

'Volkswagen will submit its $10B plan this month to fix a half-million emissions-cheating cars or get them off U.S. roads even though it's awaiting regulators' sign-off on how to retrofit the vehicles.
According to Bloomberg, about $6.5B will go to car owners and $3.5B to the U.S. government and California regulators'.  I wasn't impressed by last week's 2025 update and in the European auto space at prevailing much prefer BMW...

Meanwhile did you see this in the Middle East?  'The ADX General Index advanced 4.7 percent to close at 4,524.41, the strongest level in almost two months. National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC jumped 15 percent, the maximum allowed in a day, and First Gulf Bank PJSC rose 11 percent after the lenders said in a joint statement they’ve formed working groups to explore a potential combination'.

Meanwhile low bond yields are causing a problem for the UK's dominant fixed telecoms operator: 

And finally...

(h/t @dinapomeranz) 

I enjoyed this cited by own wake-up time is a little bit off-the-charts!!

Have a good week 

Thursday, 16 June 2016

Some new Financial Orbit links

It has been a busy start to the week...and the markets have been somewhat volatile too.  

Still I have found time to write a couple of articles.  I am very proud to appear for the first time on Sentifi here talking about brexit and related. 

Meanwhile my article on J Sainsbury is mentioned in this month's monthly UK Investor publication which you can view here (free sign-up). 


Sunday, 12 June 2016

Stories we should be thinking about

Ahead of the new working week here are a few finance and related stories to be thinking about.

Macro matters:

Not the easiest week, especially in Europe:

Certainly a strange world out there caution as expressed by bond prices is extreme...

...and look at the divergence of economic lead indications...far more uncorrelated than global equity indices: 

All eyes on the UK as the EU referendum polls stay tight but currently (if you believe them) just to the favour of 'leave'... the worries re migration builds (but the reality is that the 'Turkey deal' and Euro6bn) has had an impact: 

Meanwhile the view from the German press is pretty clear: 

Well let's face it the German's need some help in ensuring good management of Europe - especially given the dearth of labour market reforms in France (link here): 

“Corporate debt remains a serious — and growing — problem [in China] that must be addressed immediately and with a commitment to serious reforms,” said David Lipton, the IMF’s number two and the leader of its latest mission, which ends on Tuesday.  Hmm, yes you can see what they mean: 

And not just in China...goodness the US private sector looks relatively prudent by comparison: 

 Hello (again) US$600 for bitcoin prices.  Chinese buying apparently...

...i am sure LNG suppliers are hoping for the same thing: 

And you thought that no jobs were being created...


Sector and companies: 

Interesting via @planmaestro on how buybacks are not necessarily highly influential on shareholder returns.  I see the logic - just returning the money is often not enough.
Kind of interesting on brands too:
As I observed on Twitter: 

Can you just imagine what would be valued at if spun-out? Will be adding to my position sub $700...

The Brexit impact...

'Budget airline easyJet has examined setting up a separate European business in case Britain leaves the European Union. Obtaining an air operator’s certificate (AOC) in an EU country, which would require it to establish a local holding company, is one of the options the FTSE 100 carrier has looked at as part of contingency planning in the event of a Brexit' (link here). 

Not convinced this is great tactic by Tesla: 

Have a good week 

Saturday, 11 June 2016

The last week on Financial Orbit

A busy last week at Financial Orbit.  Probably the key single event was the Financial Orbit webinar (to which you can listen to a replay here ) and which covered...

The webinar also included a special offer for new subscribers to the totality of Financial Orbit's content services. 

In the content services over the last week, my favourite Financial Orbit Macro chart was this one from Friday's publication: 

We have this strange combination in the world currently of some markets at/near highs…and bond yields at very low levels.  Meanwhile sentiment levels are generally low among investors.  I liked this via @MktOutperform reflecting this tension within broader market thought:

You can see the reason for the confusion...with markets going up and bond yields down recently.  This tension has got to overspill somewhere...and Friday's falling markets gave one indication: 

Contained within the daily updates in Financial Orbit Stocks were some specific longer pieces including an appraisal of the Royal Dutch Shell capital markets day on Tuesday and some analysis on brand value following the annual Brand Z report published in the Financial Times.  Here are some summary results from the top 50 global brands…and of course the key is the final column: brand value as a proportion of a firm’s EV.

We will be picking through the best of these statistics and trying to unearth investment ideas from it over the next few week for the benefit of both Financial Orbit Stocks and Financial Orbit Immediate.  

Finally you can read my thoughts on the ShareProphets website on J Sainsbury shares after their recent numbers here.