Friday, 17 July 2015

A few macro and related thoughts today

A few macro and related thoughts today...

Greece - IMF's Lagarde: Greek parliament approval of deal is encouraging; Greek ownership of reforms will be gradual. Grexit off the table. Meanwhile, chat that Greek PM Tsipras To Fire Several Ministers, New Elections Planned (Bild, Bloomberg).  Banks to open on Monday?

Meanwhile I read on Fast FT that: 

The head of the International Monetary Fund said eurozone creditors' plan for Greece is "categorically" not viable without a reduction in debt.

Some of these graphics below are still very relevant...





UK – Carney speech yesterday talking about the scope for interest rate rises, highlighting end of the year as a point where debate ‘comes into sharper relief’.  Also notes that ‘short-term interest rates have averaged around 4.5% since the bank’s inception’ and suggests any rate tightening cycle could be 3 years in duration.  I think the reality here though is that UK rates may edge up a touch over the next 6-12 months but it is a touch.  This remains a very different cycle.

China – the World Bank says China's economic fundamentals are sound (Xinhua) and Shanghai margin debt falls to a 4 month low.  However this report highlights the huge extent of the support schemes that have been enacted 

Flows all over the place -

 

Interesting GDP split – note the rise of financials, thanks the growth in brokerage accounts.  So what happens next quarter?


US - Yellen: We wouldn't be pleased to see inflation linger indefinitely below 2% Yellen: Hikes will be "prudent and gradual".  Another central banker indicating that any hikes will look a lot different than a normal interest rate cycle. 

BRICS growth –


Gold  - interesting point

 

Tax havens – wow!

 

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