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Monday, 4 May 2015

Some macro thoughts today

A few macro and related thoughts today

Greece latest - "All sides aim for an agreement at a Brussels Group level within May." (link here). It drags on…

More European growth? - The European Commission will raise its 2015 GDP growth forecast for France to 1.1 percent from 1.0 percent on Tuesday, French Sunday newspaper Le Journal du Dimanche reported, without saying where it obtained the information. The Commission will also cut its forecast for France's 2016 growth to 1.7 percent from 1.8 percent, according to the newspaper.  Still looks way below trend to me…

Asia - China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Apr, F): 48.9  (exp 49.4 prev 49.2). fastest decline in a year. Drop in new orders also sharpest in a year. No barrier to further interest rate cuts in my view...


And the rest of the Asian manufacturing PMIs?

South Korea - 'Operating conditions worsen at South Korean manufacturers'


Indonesia - 'New export orders drop at fastest pace in survey history'

Taiwan - 'Operating conditions deteriorate for first time since July 2013'

Foreign exchange - IMF Close To Declaring China's Yuan Fairly Valued – WSJ. Nice chart why this possibly is via @@S_Rabinovitch


UK General Election - looking tight.  Polls on Thursday:


Commodities - interesting mash-up of commodity statistics via @PredictedMkts.  My thoughts?  I prefer gold stocks here to oil stocks...

WTI has rallied for 7 consecutive weeks (+31.4%). Sequence of weekly rallies has gone to 8 weeks only twice since Aug 1990

has fallen for 4 weeks in a row ($32.95). Sequence of weekly falls has extended to 5 only twice since 15th Aug 2008

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