Did I get my 2014 stock calls right? Some numbers and learnings...

So after publishing last Friday the scorecard for my anticipated 2014 macro trends (link here), it is now the turn of the stock pick choices which were split over two postings in December 2013:

'14 US stocks for 2014' (link here)

'14 World ex-US stocks for 2014' (link here)

It was quite interesting going back to these postings.  Analytically I only concentrated on the headline stock lists but of the 14 US stocks I still own six of them and of the World ex-US stocks I still own nine of them.  

Turning to the US stocks first - and using the 'hit', 'neutral' and 'miss' methodology of the macro trends report the calls shape up (versus the S&P500 index):

Hits - Eli Lily, WellPoint (now renamed Anthem), Time Warner, Cisco, Timken (adjusting for spin-off), Tyson Foods, Voya, Interpublic

Neutrals - Staples, Symantec

Misses - Coach, Apache, Agco, Philip Morris International 

So happy days then with 8 'hits' and only 4 'misses'?  Well...if you neutrally weight the fourteen names the grouping underperforms the rampant S&P500.  In a momentum market the 'misses' really dragged. 

So...as I discussed in my earlier Yahoo Finance Contributors posting (link here) 2014 was a tough year to beat the US indices even if I did handicap myself by not changing the list and hence allowing myself to be truly active. (As an aside my actual live equity portfolios have performed well during 2014 reflecting an enhanced level of activity).    

The other insight for me is something I already knew - I am much more of a 'mean-reversion' than a 'momentum' investor.  I still own all four of the 'misses' and at various points of the year added to all of them.  Of the 'hits' the only two names I still own are Timken and Voya.  

What about the World ex-US list?  Here I compared the stock to its local market.  Clearly this is unsatisfactory at a certain level as my portfolios are denominated in Sterling and FX gains and losses can have an impact but such a view allows some element of feel whether against their local markets the stocks out or underperformed.  So on this basis...

Hits - Electrolux, Sony, Randgold, BSkyB (now renamed Sky), Chemring, Vivendi

Neutrals - Royal & Sun Alliance, Essar Energy (stock tendered during the earlier part of the year)

Misses - Syngenta, BG, Umicore, Chow Tai Fook, GrainCorp, Remy Cointreau

So interestingly a much more 'even' balance of 6 'hits' and 6 'misses'...but actually this portfolio on an evenly weighted basis outperformed.  And how many of these stocks do I still own?  3 of the 'hits' and 5 of the 'misses' (plus one of the 'neutrals') an akin trend to the US list.  

Thoughts from all of this?  What is fascinating to me is the extra value I have added via 'active' active management in line with the conclusions from some of the research I cited in my Yahoo Finance Contributors article earlier.  

So full year lists are pointless?  Not at all...they provide a great posting opportunity near the end of the year, are an insightful appraisal source for investment choice biases (see above!) and can inspire new thinking and conclusions.  I think, however, for 2015 I will provide just one unified list i.e. '15 global stocks for 2015'.  Theoretical investing should only be taken so far - and as my weekly trades posting and my end of month performance data write-up shows (see the performance tab on the website) I am far more ultimately interested in the realities of investing.