Stories we should be thinking about

A few finance and related stories we need to be thinking about before Monday morning:

Macro matters:

Instead of a 'must-read' this is a 'must-listen'.  Tom Winnifrith of ShareProphets fame talking about Greece where he currently is stationed for the next five or six weeks.  Some fascinating insights about the realities of cashing cheques in the country, observations about the banking sector/property market and thoughts on where the country is going...

Tom is totally correct on the banks. This from @Fmirw makes the point admirably: 'Greek banks deposit outflows accelerated to more than €3bn per wk. At this pace they have 8 wks before they run out of collateral (JPM)'.  Hmm!

A big day for Greece tomorrow as The Financial Times notes:

'A draft of the reform measures was submitted ahead of a formal evaluation on Monday by bailout monitors that will determine whether a tentative agreement to extend the €172bn rescue until June can proceed'.

Staying in Europe, what an interesting report from Stratfor on Spain: 'I asked one of the protest organizers if she thought the upcoming general election would change things in Spain. "There is always hope," she told me, "but also skepticism." I was surprised by her sophisticated approach to Podemos. She said, "we like them, but so far, they haven't said anything concrete. We want to see their specific proposals on mortgage law reform before we decide whether we will vote for them." '

This inflow in Danish krone is going to mean the country is going to continue to struggle to keep its currency down (and peg with the euro under control).

I talked on Saturday about the interesting signalling of the VIX currently.  I am indebted to @MarkBrant1KM who highlighted these two interesting related charts to me from @RussellRhoads...

...and @VixUpdates respectively.  Great stuff! A high VIX but still new highs worries me whilst rising interest rate volatility generally (as with many aspects of the fixed interest markets) is a signal not to be ignored.  

Oil related volatility has also picked up hugely over the last six months.  A nice contango chart via the Sober Look website: 

 

A bold claim: 'Hot days are worse than cold ones, and this economics research proves it' (link here).  

Company-related observations:

Barrons writes up Apple positively this weekend: 'Look for the stock price to rise to $160 over the next year for a 25% return including dividends. Expect a big dividend hike when the company updates its capital-return program, likely in April. The current yield looks undersized at 1.5%...A rise to $160 in a year would put the shares at 17 times forward earnings estimates, where the Standard & Poor’s 500 index trades today. Considering Apple’s understated earnings, its cash hoard, its avenues for growth, and its history of beating expectations, it’s time for the stock to carry at least a market valuation, if not a premium'

Have you seen how biotechnology has performed YTD?

Useful write up on Twitter: 'Much of its battles have had to do with convincing the market that it’s a sustainable business, as well as a usable product — finding equilibrium'.

Here is an interesting insight into social trends (and technology growth companies):

Growth in active users in 2014:

1 Pinterest 97%

2 Tumblr 95%

3 Instagram 47%

4 LinkedIn 38%

5 YouTube 13%

6 Twitter 7%

7 Google+ 6%

8 FB -9%

(h/t @ValaAfshar)

And finally...

'How to read a book' - reading this link has certainly changed my understanding about how to do this.

Want to know how the planet might look in 100 quintillion years time?  What a link and a great graphic too (here)!

'...concurrence of Gregorian and Islamic calendars (18,860 years), raising the possibility that warring cultures may finally get on the same page. And the Chernobyl nuclear plant becomes completely safe (20,000 years). On the other, all today's buildings have crumbled away (1,000 years). The Earth's axial tilt has switched sides (13,000 years) producing hotter summers and colder winters. Niagara Falls has disappeared (50,000 years), because Lake Erie is gone. And, there's been a super-volcano eruption, or half-mile wide asteroid strike (500,000 years)'. 

Have a good week