Monday, 23 February 2015

Stories today - Greece, UK election, oil, Japan, hedge fund sentiment

Some stories that are catching my eye this Monday morning: 

Greece and the deal - “In effect it cancels austerity … In a few days we have achieved a lot but we have a long road. We have taken a decisive step to change course within the eurozone. Now negotiations enter a new, effective stage.”  They certainly do…nice rundown of upcoming events, votes and Syriza disagreements here 


Personal view: as I have argued in a couple of places over the weekend, the Friday deal is akin to kicking the can down the road…and hence the debate has to continue/no effective solution.  Still, short-term markets like it as some element of certainty for now...especially as the surprise indices have pushed up.  Enjoy it whilst you can would be my view...


UK election - The Opinium poll for the Observer newspaper published on Sunday put the Conservatives on 35 percent compared to 33 percent for Labour -- the first time Cameron's party has overtaken Labour in that polling series since March 2012.  Perhaps Rothschilds have gone too early with the below (alleged) action?

 

Oil – headline volatility remains here e.g. (a) UK C’llr Osborne To Introduce North Sea Investment Allowance – Times.  Meanwhile, (b) Oman, the biggest Middle Eastern oil producer that’s not a member of OPEC, is boosting crude output to as much as possible with the global price rout over, Salim Al Aufi, undersecretary of the oil and gas ministry, said.

Japan – new 15 year high helped by comment that inflation expectations show "steady progress in the conversion of the deflationary mindset despite the further drop in crude oil prices and the decline in the actual inflation rate." In the BoJ minutes.  Still cautious on outlook for Japan believing a lower and lower yen indicates all is not well especially with so much debt overhanging lacklustre growth:


Hedge fund net long exposure striking.  Going to mark the top of the market?!

 


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