Friday, 7 February 2014

Charts today - non farm payrolls trading strategy, China's back, emerging markets valuation, Mr Putin

A few charts that caught my eye today. 

Non-farm payrolls numbers today and I enjoyed this chart from Bespoke Invest.  Historically 'bad news is good news' which is an interesting observation given the very wide range of NFP guesses (due to the uncertain weather impacts).  Many eyes on this data disclosure today. 


After the week long lunar year holiday, the Chinese stock market is back...and actually only down modestly after the gyrations elsewhere in global markets over the interim period.  The HSBC composite PMI was suitably dull although frankly, as shown below, not that different from the last couple of years. 

 
 
Perhaps more useful was this chart from HSBC on how different Chinese growth rates impact the 'at the margin' increase in demand.  It does matter what percentage China grows at for global demand.
 


Thinking more widely about emerging markets, SocGen make a good point that valuations are much lower than seen in the pre-Lehman period.  If we are to evolve into another crisis (too extreme a call in my view) then emerging markets are doing it from a lower valuation level than before the global financial crisis. 


 
Finally, I thought this chart from today's Financial Times on Mr Putin in Russia was insightful.  There are lots of people who 'do not know/will not vote'!
 


 

 

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