Migrant crisis – ‘a Brussels summit of EU leaders
yesterday night prepared to bless a package offering Ankara fast-tracked visa
privileges, Euro3bn in aid and the prospect of revitalised EU membership talks’
(FT) Finally getting closer to the sort of deal that should have been
struck months ago…
Big macro week ahead as noted in yesterday's post...
...including lots of chat about further ECB stimulus:
Sunday Times business section getting excited:
ECB chief plans new €600bn injection
Morgan Stanley gets even more cautious re the euro…
Meanwhile talking about Europe and QE, it at least has boosted equity flows:
(h/t @AlastairWinter)
UK interest rates - Gertjan Vlieghe, the newest rate
setter at the Bank of England, said he’s “relaxed” about keeping the benchmark
at a record low for now. Economic growth has to “stabilize or even pick
up a bit” and wages need to rise more strongly before the bank should consider
its first rate increase since 2007, Vlieghe said in an interview with the
Sunday Times newspaper (link here). Would agree, no imminent need to raise UK interest rates
Brazil - Brazil’s largest independent investment bank
BTG Pactual moved to distance itself from a deepening crisis facing its
embattled head André Esteves by replacing him on Sunday night with two co-chief
executives. BTG on Sunday also denied a media report that prosecutors had
uncovered indications it paid R$45m ($11.7m) to Eduardo Cunha, head of the
lower house of congress, to pass a measure favouring one of its businesses, a
failed bank, Bamerindus (FT). Hmm!
Asia – Asian markets generally down not helped by
most-active iron ore futures in Singapore sank below $40 a metric ton for the
first time on concern that the economic slowdown in China will cut demand as
supplies from the largest miners climb.
(h/t @mcdonaldsarahj)
Black Friday / related shopping – in the US online
spending Thurs-Sat up 19% yoy to US$6.1bn. Mobile devices 34% of online
sales up from 27% a year ago. Meanwhile the National Retail Federation
sees entire holiday period spending projected to increase 3.7% yoy vs 4.1% last
year. So a continued structural mobile trend...but underlying sales not so hot (and what does it imply re Christmas sales?!)
Later – China SDR inclusion announcement? IMF’s
management insists that its review of the case for including the renminbi was
purely “technical” in nature and focused on practical issues of whether the
renminbi could be used in IMF transactions with its members (link here).
Also the Paris climate conference kicks off. The
COP21 summit, involving nearly 200 nations, is intended to produce a global
agreement to reduce carbon emissions and limit temperature change. The meeting
will run through Dec. 11.
On the latter, the view in Beijing today:
(h/t @rafferty_tom)
Meanwhile talking about emissions some countries matter more than others...
And finally, if you want to watch one thing this week:
Big DXY levels currently -
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