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Wednesday, 17 December 2014

Asia and charts today - Russia, China, Japan, Greece, the Fed and M&A

Got to start with Russia – rouble kicking around 70-72 versus the US$ currently versus low of 80 yesterday so a bit of relative stability there at the time of writing.  Meanwhile in terms of the impact still lots of interesting spillovers.

From an economic growth perspective the Russian central bank are predicting a….2017 bounceback

 
In terms of overspill onto other countries there are no huge surprises re the relative ranking of European countries most impacted with the exception of Netherlands and the UK having a bigger potential impact than that on Germany (doesn’t include gas supply though).


US exposed names list (at the stock level) kind of interesting too

 


In Asia given events elsewhere, less of overt interest.  China is at a new 4 year high today but the most striking chart there must be this one from Fast FT which notes the premium Shanghai listed shares are trading at versus dual-listed Hong Kong equivalents:


What else?

Japan – In hopes of spurring pay hikes, Japan is leaning toward reducing the tax burden on businesses that increase wages by 3% or more as part of a corporate taxation overhaul next fiscal year.  Actually very sensible…as need to get wages up.  The trouble is fiscal side so poor more tax breaks not ideal!

Surely the biggest story in Japan today however is this one...


Fed later -
Hilsenrath Analysis: Fed Unlikely to React Aggressively to Russia Turmoil (link here)

US corrections above 5%...average of 9% in total


Greece – Samaras apparently 20 votes short for vote #1 later in the day


High yield outflows - 


M&A -



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