Thursday, 3 September 2015

Chart-fest from one of Europe's most interesting companies

I know, I know, Europe and interesting companies maybe classically recently do not go very well together.  However it is well worth taking a look at Umicore a Belgian company which made the cut for top 15 stocks for 2015 I put together near the turn of the year.  At least the share is still up on the year (albeit well down from the mid-year high):

Today (Wednesday) Umicore held a capital markets day. CMDs often provide fascinating insights and having paced through all the Umicore executive presentations here are the best charts and slides from my perspective:

First...who are Umicore?  Well, they have important positions in (precious) metals recycling, auto/truck catalysts and some more specialist energy/surface technologies businesses. 

And these positions include some strong incumbent positions: 

However the European financial crisis/malaise no doubt did not help them hit their first half of this decade targets...

...however the company still has optimism about the acceleration scope in revenues/ebitda: 

So why such optimism?  Tightening optimism in the auto/truck catalyst areas help... well as inherent growth in this space (slightly higher in the 'heavy duty' area i.e. trucks/related):
Elsewhere the company sees strong growth in the battery/related areas especially in the rechargeable sub-space:
Strong dynamics in rechargeable battery materials is driven by vehicle electrification but it is not the only growth area in this broad space: 
 Whilst catalyst and battery/related operations are strong, recycling remains the strongest sub-sector that Umicore have...

...and this is centred on a unique (precious) metals recycling position centred on their world leading Hoboken plant: 

 Bringing this all together the company anticipates doubling earnings by 2020 implying a CAGR nicely into the double digit range:

...which should offer opportunities to continue to augment the current 2.8% dividend yield given the strong balance sheet where net debt to ebitda is just x0.6.  

 Bottom line Umicore remains a fascinating thematic company with good growth prospects.  A just above x12 EV/ebit rating based on their FY15e guidance equates to a good value entry point for investors in my view especially given the aforementioned near 3% dividend yield plus a strong balance sheet. The shares should be deep into the Euro40s in my view.

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