Wednesday, 5 August 2015

A few macro and related thoughts this morning

A few macro and related thoughts this morning...

Greece – day #2 of the return of the Greek bourse only led to a 1%+ drop. Greek banks are at/around limit down however. In the past 5 years, shares in National Bank of Greece have lost 99.46 per cent of their value.

Unsurprisingly Greece ranks worse on this measure:

(h/t @ldaadler) 

China – service sector PMI a little better. China Caixin Services PMI (Jul): 53.8 (prev 51.8) China Caixin Composite PMI (Jul): 50.2 (prev 50.6).  Nevertheless due to weak manufacturing ‘new business at the composite level rose at a fractional pace that was the slowest in the current 15-month sequence of expansion’.  For me further loosening in policy perfectly plausible.

Meanwhile talking about China, interesting on brands in the country...

(h/t @S_Rabinovitch, @HaidiLunCNA)

(is this why a number of companies are talking specific weaknesses in China beyond the general slowdown?)

Yuan/FX – various overnight headlines including IMF: `Significant Work Remains' On Review Of Yuan In SDR, IMF: Operational Issues Must Be Resolved If Yuan Part Of SDR despite Yuan Made `Substantial Progress' On Intl Use Since 2010.  China needs to keep liberalising by the sound of it…

Back to the PMIs, a few other highlights (and many more numbers out later today): 

Russian service sector returns to expansion, highest services PMI jump in 20 months to 51.6

India Composite PMI Output Index climbed to 52.0 from 49.2 in June to signal a modest increase in activity. Growth has now been recorded in 14 of the past 15 months.  However survey provider still says that more interest rate cuts should occur.

Hong Kong Purchasing Managers’ Index posted at 48.2 in July, down from 49.2 in June, and signalled a further deterioration in the health of the sector.

US interest rates – lots of chat overnight about an imminent US rate hike. Markets now pricing in probability of a Fed rate hike at: 44% in September, 50% in October, 73% in December. 

Plausible to raise rates anything other than a nominal change with this trend however in US durable goods thanks to the slowing global economy and the strong US dollar?

(h/t @SoberLook)

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