Tuesday, 4 August 2015

Financial Orbit wrap 04/08/15

Five sentences or graphics which sum up the Financial Orbit output over the last 24 hours across the website, twitter account and anything else thought about...

1. Don't believe in extrapolated returns after a good market run basically - seems sensible to me.


2. Listened to a couple of automotive sector conference calls which inevitably focused on China: 


Toyota - 'despite the market trends sales volumes have increased in the last two months’

But seem to be guiding for a fall in earnings

Q1 decrease in earnings for China but for FY ‘not as substantial a deterioration’ 

BMW - China – increasing capacity with the introduction of new models ‘ensuring we are running around 100% capacity utilisation’

Still expecting growth but not in the double digit range

Still expect to be in the 8-10% margin range ‘cannot rule out unforeseen incidents’ 


3. I wrote up some thoughts on Coach, Kellogg's and ADM - I passed on two but still believe one has value characteristics (link here). 

4. Meanwhile am still chilling on Mosaic but observe some of the underlying value apparent.  Keep watching for a sub US$40 print! (Link here). 


5. Plenty of other interesting company data out including observations from Emerson Electric about how difficult it is out there...


...and after hours Disney shares down 5%+ as:

'On conf call where they have called out FX and slow cable subscriber issues as -ve impacts on FY16, countered by $6-8bn buybacks'


Write-ups to follow...

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