Thursday, 30 July 2015

A few macro thoughts...

A few macro thoughts today...(a bit brief as so many companies out which is really my focus today): 

Greece – delays, delays: Parliament’s Budget Office warned on Wednesday that the government tactics of the last six months have led the economy back to recession, with weekly losses of 2.8 billion euros in gross domestic product as long as the capital controls apply (link here).  

Meanwhile an Athens stock exchange spokesperson said that – despite rumours yesterday – the market unlikely to open this week…

Greece #2 - Tsipras Seeks to Avert Party Split as Greece’s Creditors Arrive for Talks (link here). 

FOMC thoughts - FED: RATE TO RISE AFTER `SOME FURTHER' JOB MARKET IMPROVEMENT. " Some" = "not a lot"? So September still on, assuming decent employment reports Jul/Aug would be a consensus view…however I would highlight interest rates levels so much lower than normal at this stage of an economic recovery. Still cautious though about further material US dollar strength...

China – volume has halved since June highs, whilst the overall Shanghai Composite flicking either side of zero today.  A relatively quiet day (for once)...until a big fall into the close.  The below surely appropriate! 


(h/t @RANsquawk)

Brazil - Brazilian Central Bank Hikes SELIC Rate 50 bps To 14.25% As Expected...hasn't helped the currency YTD as shown below.  




Still in terms of where there is growth in the world...it is not in the developed world: 


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