Tuesday, 5 May 2015

Macro thoughts today

Just a quick summary today - too many interesting companies reporting!

Greece ‘is so far off course on its $172bn bailout programme that it faces losing vital International Monetary Fund support unless European lenders write off significant amounts of its sovereign debt, the fund has warned Athens’ eurozone creditors’ (FT).  

Hello haircuts (not that the Greeks want bond restructuring to be called that).  

Greece #2 – any answers here I wonder? Deputy PM Dragasakis will meet Draghi today 17.30 in Frankfurt. Dragasakis, not Varoufakis note (despite some rumours yesterday that he was back fully on the team).

Rate cuts - Reserve Bank of Australia cuts rates to a record low of 2%  “so as to reinforce recent encouraging trends in household demand." Hmm. Lower for longer in another country…

Also note the 'interesting' response to the rate cut.  Not just a lot priced in but also that in a currency war world a lot of strange things can happen.  

China - Chinese listed companies have now surpassed 10% of the global market capitalization for the first time on record. However market down as several brokerage houses have raised margin requirements by about 10%, mainly for trading of small-cap stocks in order to prevent risks.  Also talk of a 0.1% stamp duty.  

US economy ‘will likely move into a long-term period of growth that is lower than the average prior to the financial crisis, says Moody's Investors Service. The slower growth can support the US's current Aaa rating with stable outlook, although it will make the rating more vulnerable to economic shocks and fiscal policy changes’ (link here).  Not that fantastic a write-up.  

Bonus link – yesterday’s Ira Sohn conference picks/pans summarised nicely here

And finally...still chuckling about all those private planes that went to see the big fight last weekend. I know they were there...but when something is this hyped the value investor looks elsewhere! 

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