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Sunday, 7 December 2014

Stories we should be thinking about

A few finance and related stories we need to be thinking about before Monday morning:


Macro matters:

Good piece on Japan and the Abe re-election bid which concludes:

'If Abe expends political capital on restarting nuclear power plants and on implementing collective self-defence before any economic fruits are borne from the third arrow, the prime ministerial merry-go-round may start up again sooner rather than later'.

I totally agree with this.  Supply side reforms are key for Japan as it is their only medium-term salvation...

Interesting article on Saudi Arabia and oil published on Seeking Alpha which included this chart:


Pretty clear where all the growth is coming from in the oil space...and hence the strategic concern of the Saudi's... Three more oil/related charts that I came across during the weekend (unsurprisingly still a major area of interest for the markets):

Another geographic winner/loser chart of a GDP growth basis (note the US and the Euro area are not the big winners)...
...and fascinating to see that the non-Shale states in the US have not contributed to net employment growth over the past six plus years or so at all:


(nice chart from this article). 

Meanwhile is oil just catching up with the natural gas price?:


Interesting cumulative jobs numbers relative to other post recession bounce backs:


Interestingly too to note the lacklustre trend in tax revenues in the US.  A strong and balanced recovery?  I don't think so (even if the stock market in the US is making new highs):


Smaulgld muses on evidence that Belgium is looking to follow the lead of their neighbours the Dutch in looking to repatriate gold.  Link here.


"Daily BTC/USD volatility is around 5%, which is about 5–7 times the volatility of a major forex cross,".  Interesting quote and fascinating article on bitcoins (link here).

Talking about bitcoins...I should have given a shout-out a week ago to this great article by Worth Wray on the subject (link here).

Not a pretty chart for the Australian dollar (sourced via @TechCharts here).  I do remain short Australian assets although recently I have focused on the Australian index:



Where in the world flooding could be a future risk:


A couple of relative S&P charts.  This first one was sourced from The Financial Times and touches on the index relative to gold and 10 year bonds over the past 14 years or so...


...whilst this one from Bloomberg briefs notes how the S&P priced in either euros or yens looks so much better during 2014: 



Finally, I like this chart from this article musing about semiconductors making taking over from "Dr Copper":



Wow: '29 predictions for 2015: Fortune's Crystal Ball'.  Link here.  And my favourite?:

THE PRICE OF LATTES WILL GO UP


Company-related observations:

Great write-up on Imperial Tobacco here.  I am still a shareholder myself  in anticipation that the US deal they struck recently in association with continuing dividend progression and under appreciated cost cuts will push the shares to above the 3000p level.


Activist investors to take a stake in the UK food retailer Sainsbury's (link here)?  The UK food retail is very out-of-favour...

It is not just Apple that is a big company nowadays of the technology giants: 


I remain negatively impressed by the rise of high yield bond issuance by the oil and gas sector: 


Uber's indicative market cap:

And finally...

Riding a bike as a form of meditation - hugely agree with this post

J. Money has some serious advice for us all 'to continue hustling and finding more ways to save and cut back in our daily lives – without much sacrifice'.  Fantastic article.  Link here.  

One of the stranger headlines you will read all year (link here): 

François Hollande mocked for looking 'like Borat’

Elysée furious after photos posted of François Hollande in Kazakhstan in full traditional costume 


Have a good week

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