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Thursday, 12 February 2015

Charts today - sentiment, earnings and tax

A few charts today that strike me as interesting.

On sentiment not only have this morning's weekly AAII bull-bear spread pushed up again strongly (link here) but the Investors Intelligence bear proportion remains low too:


The collapse in the AAII weekly bull-bear spread last week excited me as an individual data point (see here) but I am afraid the above indicates again that caution/a stock picking focus is the correct one.  

As talks rumble on over Greece an indication that statistically it does not matter so much what the country does...

...but let's remember that key contagion risk which is why a deal with Greece needs to be struck.

 Of course all of this keeps on pushing (downward) pressure on the euro and hence (upward) pressure on the US dollar.  Which is a big contributory to the movement of the ex-Energy sector S&P 500 earnings.

Finally, a fascinating tax revenues chart not just because the US is near the bottom but look how close Germany and Greece are!  Harmonisation!


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