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Sunday, 14 December 2014

Stories we should be thinking about

A few finance and related stories we need to be thinking about before Monday morning:


Macro matters:

As per this report on Bloomberg 'the coalition of Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party and junior partner Komeito won a two-thirds majority in the lower house, according to NHK projections based on actual votes cast. The bloc won 325 of 475 seats with two still undeclared, matching the number before the election. Turnout fell to a record low on a combination of voter apathy and heavy snow in parts of the country'.


There will be more on the impact of this election on Japan - and financial assets around the world - in tomorrow morning's (GMT) Financial Orbit.  

So the Russian ruble has been really weak recently...well to put it into historical context it has only been worse at times of revolution or default...


Interesting to see the change in life satisfaction across central/eastern Europe since the fall of the Berlin Wall.  West and East Germany broadly unified...

Did you see that the OPEC Secretary General Abdalla Salem el-Badri said on Sunday that the the group has no target price for oil? Plus that the U.S. would continue to rely on Middle East crude for many years?  Optimistic or realistic?

A nice simple piece (link here) which attempts to debunk some of the myths around energy at the moment.  Do you know the answers to?:
  1. What country was the world's largest overall producer of energy? The largest consumer?
  2. What region has the largest proven reserves?
  3. How does Chinese consumption per capita compare with Europe? With the US?
  4. How many car drivers are there in China? What is the growth rate?
  5. What is the change in demand for oil in 2014?
  6. What is the daily oil consumption? How much is the supply/demand imbalance?

I would agree with the conclusion of a recent article by Horan Capital Advisers that 'for long term investors, a number of stocks are beginning to offer entry points that could be rewarding longer term'


And from the value/supply responding to lower prices perspective I did note that as per Seeking Alpha 'U.S. oil drillers idled the most rigs in almost two years last week, dropping by 29 to 1,546 for the lowest level since June and the biggest decline since December 2012, according to Baker Hughes' latest survey'.  

Now Austria potentially wants to repatriate its gold too... (link here).  This is a theme that is not going to go away.
This week will be an interesting one for US interest rates with thoughts from the Federal Reserve upcoming.  However on a breakeven rate basis it is the UK that stands out: 


An 'All star reject 2013' portfolio has done rather well over the last year (link here).  Makes me wonder what an equivalent for 2014 would look like...

Talking about a new year, what are the popular financial resolutions people make?

How about three 'YTD' charts to end the macro segment?  Hands up who was long coffee, short iron ore this year?

The Russian ruble is making a late bid to be the weakest currency of 2014.  (Well done the Somali Shilling by the way).  


Meanwhile we have a new leader (Shanghai) in main global market winner of the year.  Mining and related helped take the UK index into the wooden spoon position...


Company-related observations:

Nice write-up on the UK insurer Admiral (link here)

Parabolic growth of Amazon prime members: 


Petrobras delayed release of its full Q3 financial results.  The company has until Jan. 31, 2015 to release unaudited Q3 results without breaking covenants in its debt agreements.

As per the Sunday Times, Tesco has '...asked its auditor to step up scrutiny of stock management in stores as it struggles to regain control of its finances after yet another profit warning. Britain’s biggest supermarket is understood to have instructed PwC to attend more stock takes across its 3,300 shops and to pay particular attention to “shrink and waste” — the recording of products that are lost, stolen or spoiled'.  

And finally...

I am trying to work out which one I am closest to: 'The cast of characters on Finance Twitter' (link here).

A great 'reading people' quiz (link here).  I got 13/20...


The 'pilots of instagram'.  Wow...(and totally illegal apparently). 


Have a good week

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