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Thursday, 4 September 2014

Charts today - ABS, breaking down the US Treasury, US optimism and a 14 year UK market high

Charts today has to start with something relevant to what Mr Draghi may talk about later today.  This chart (highlighted by @jsblokland) makes some good points re a QE-lite sort of announcement centred on specific parts of the ABS markets.



I have talked before about bonds and QE and typically - it seems to me - that the main impact comes in the anticipation of QE.  I liked this study by Bruegel (link here) which breaks down the 10 year Treasury.  The real risk-free rate is rising according to them...in a negative real interest rate world not a disaster / a justifier for (continued) flows?


Does this feel correct regarding the US economy?  I note the latest AAII sentiment survey remains stretched but slightly less than last week.  Volatility feels too lowly valued to me.  


Part of any optimism can come from statistical revisions...such as this historic UK economic growth one as noted in today's Financial Times.


Still remains a tricky world however despite, as per the newspaper's front page observation:

'FTSE 100 shrugs off fears to hit 14 year high.  Rise defies Ukraine and Mideast instability'

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