Charts today - Portugal, debt, emerging markets and bitcoin

Charts today has to really start with a Portugal-related chart given the volatility and influence of events in that market yesterday.

Here's the country's default rate probability.  So...a sharp uptick...but look at that downward risk suppression over the last year.

So it was a relevant move yesterday but either we have not seen anything yet...or it will prove just to be a storm in a teacup.  My view...the only hope is further policy accommodation measures by the European authorities.  Unfortunately that is not guaranteed with, I feel, much more discussions and disagreements to come over the next few months.  So more volatility to come - and volatility measures remain hugely suppressed versus history.  

Reiterating this I noted in a tweet from @RAsquawk that:

'Goldman downplaying Portugal - wont have systemic implications 1) limited asset size 2) low Foreign bank exposure 3) ECB liquidity backstops'

Oh dear...

Debt build up does not help as well...and this is nicely shown by the graphic below.  Guess who has been building up debt and growing more slowly?

So how about the emerging markets.  They have had a different year with some clear local market/currency performance differentials between (say) Brazil/India and China/Russia...

...but despite this emerging market political confidence is rising.  For example - following his geopolitical putsch of earlier this year - Mr Putin is stirring...

'In an interview published on Friday, Putin framed his tour of Brazil, Cuba and Argentina as part of an effort to build a multi-polar world at a time when he is isolated by sanctions over Ukraine and his relations with the West are at their frostiest since the Cold War.  Russia sees strong relations with Brazil as "strategically important" in opposing Western clout, he said, ahead of next week's summit with fellow BRICS nations, which includes China, India and South Africa'

On a similar front, I liked this investment bank report that 'the 20 emerging nations currently only represent less than half of their fair share of the global capital market universe - accounting for only 22 percent of global equity market capitalization, and a 14 percent of the global corporate and sovereign bond markets...However, by 2030, emerging markets' share will increase to 39 percent, and to 36 percent and 27 percent respectively for corporate bonds and sovereign bonds'

And the influence of this?  Well China rises to second place in the global capital markets ladder. Other countries set to climb the capital markets ladder include Saudi Arabia, which will rise to sixth position from 10th, Indonesia, to seventh from 12th and Turkey rising to 10th from 17th by 2030.

The rise and rise of the economic/political impact and influence of the emerging markets remains a huge theme.

As does potentially bitcoin.  What an interesting chart...even if you inflation adjust up the 1995 internet spend.