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Tuesday, 15 July 2014

And the fund managers of the world say...

It is Bank of America-Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey day...always an interesting point of the monthly cycle.  So what really strikes me?  First, those regarding the markets as overvalued are at a 14 year high.  Can everyone remember what happened back in 2000?


We can go higher though (1999 showed that) but a really interesting chart.  Don't get too long...

Second, what a striking bond versus equity diagram below. How many times has this peaked at prevailing over the last decade?  A break here would show a real paradigm shift.  Certainly possible given high bond allocations...but with it huge asset allocation implications:



Then there is 'the most crowded trade' with high yield replacing long EU peripheral debt as the most extended/popular choice.  Seems about right to me...and another reason for being cautious on fixed income.    


Finally some interesting changes in emerging market country preferences.  Whilst India is still the most popular note the turnarounds in Russia and China from a net negative positioning to a net positive one.  Kind of interesting - and certainly fits in with my perception of where relative stock picking value is.   


Some interesting conclusions...

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