Charts etc - equities, bonds, quarterly earnings, sentiment...and Cyprus

So...it has been very wise to hold equities rather than bonds over the last year, especially in the US...well we all know the lack of value in the latter:

Here's the issue though...take the (almost completed) S&P500 Q3 results season.  Earnings beat hopes at a proportion above the longer-term average...but look at those preannouncements:

'9.2x is the largest negative guidance on record'. 

 

 

The quarterly earnings management shuffle was in full swing in Q3. 

 

Still, earnings beats and a strong stock market is boosting sentiment measures as per this CNN poll:

 

 

The reality on-the-ground though is that many consumers are not optimistic about the future.  This poll is from the UK.  Note the sharp differentiation in confidence levels if you are an owner-occupier or not.  People are putting faith in the property bubble...

 

 

Meanwhile, back in the real world, Cypriot bad loan proportions look ugly...

 



 

So, what can we discern from the above?

Equities have performed well, but it has been driven - to some extent - by the poor value in bonds, earnings season management and high sentiment...due to the fact that equities have performed well.  In the real world, many consumers are cautious and weak economies in the world, remain weak. 

Much to be thinking about as the world moves from 2013 into 2014.