Monday, 7 December 2015

A few macro and related thoughts today

A few macro and related thoughts today...see many more in yesterday's Stories we should be thinking about (link here).

French regional voting – With the final results of France’s thirteen regional elections now in, Front National (FN) has done even better than originally anticipated, coming first in six regions and a close second in a further two, and third in four others. With the other parties collaborating in the second round (next Sunday) this is going to be an interesting political battle to watch given the FN's anti-euro stance (amongst other policies). 

Fund flows – ‘sovereign wealth funds in the Gulf have been pulling money out of asset managers at the fastest rate on record…at least US$19bn was withdrawn during Q3’ (FT). Not the greatest news for global fund flows and market levels

Japan – a good looking Japanese economic chart cited by Fast FT…tax revenues.  One of few good looking charts and reflective for me that individual companies may have embraced liberalisation but the Japanese economy overall remains warped 

JPM note calls for 76% chance of recession within 3 years (link here).  And the reason?  Corporate margins...

The biggest increase in the recession probability, according to the economists, has come from corporations.

"The particularly sharp moves in predicted recession probabilities since mid-2014 have been driven most prominently by our measure of the decline in margins," said the note.

"Indeed, on most (but not all) of the occasions when this variable fell to its current level, a recession began within a few years. Although continued expansion remains our baseline forecast, we will more carefully investigate the risks of recession emanating from the corporate sector."

Something to watch...and another reason why a lower US dollar would be helpful to many.  

Chinese market – unusual to say the least!

Property -  plans for the UK's next mega-skyscraper that will rival the Shard: 'The Trellis' will be the tallest tower in the City of London (link here). 

Christmas party advice - what a wonderful story which you can read in full here. H/t @fion_li

Daiwa Securities Group Inc. has a message for its staff this holiday season: Go easy on the sushi and sake.

Japan’s second-biggest brokerage is encouraging its 13,600 domestic employees to eat and drink moderately for 30 days from Dec. 14. While most Japanese don’t celebrate Christmas, a period of year-end and new-year parties is in full swing nonetheless. Daiwa’s program also gives 10 hints for eating well, such as chewing properly, getting enough vitamin B, keeping tempting snacks out of sight and checking one’s weight at least every three days. Workers who are over 45 and successfully complete the 30-day course earn points that can potentially count toward salary increases once they reach their 50s and 60s.  

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