Tuesday, 17 November 2015

Sentiment, sentiment, sentiment - the best fund manager survey charts

It is time for the monthly review of the BoA-ML Fund Manager Survey best charts. Or at least the ones I believe are the best charts.  First up...that crowded long US dollar trade again.  Of course some will say we are climbing a wall of worry but I have detailed enough times (see the most recent Financial Orbit Speaks for example) the challenges of a strong US dollar regime:

Meanwhile all the losers from a strong US dollar regime remain at the bottom of the sector preferences (energy, materials as well as general commodities and emerging markets).  

Another indicator of a lack of emerging market interest currently: 

Meanwhile the cash balance level suggests from a contrarian perspective...buy equities still:

Meanwhile elsewhere the expectation unsurprisingly rises of a Federal Reserve interest rate increase during the fourth quarter:

Meanwhile no surprises that extra stimulus in the Eurozone is expected to be the major source of economic growth.  Look how this versus consumer spending rebound has changed over the last month.

My conclusions from all of this?  Sector-wise buy out-of-favour sectors / asset classes which may benefit if the US dollar does not remain as strong.  As for Europe specifically it is concerning just how much more QE is seen as a panacea.  

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