Thursday, 10 September 2015

A few macro and related stories today...

A few macro and related stories today...

Emerging markets – after a front page yesterday which highlighted the World Bank warning about the emerging markets if the US raised rates, today’s FT front page runs the headline ‘emerging markets call on Fed to lift rates and end uncertainty’!

Asia – general pullback of markets after big bump yesterday with Chinese consumer prices rising at their fastest pace in 13 months (higher pork/veg prices) but also Chinese producer prices deflated for a 42nd consecutive month, with the 5.9 per cent fall recorded for August the worst since 2009.  Not the easiest conditions for business...



(h/t @fion_li)

Meanwhile Japanese central banker chief Kuroda said will Maintain QQE Until 2% target is met. Along with weak machinery data...a return to usual form for Japan.  Far too much excitement over that move yesterday.  Put it in a last week context and the 'A to B' move in Japan has not been that dramatic: 

Brazil – S&P downgraded to junk and noted ‘Brazil's credit profile has weakened further since July 28, when we revised the outlook on Brazil to negative…We find that the ongoing investigations of corruption allegations against high-profile individuals and companies--in both the private and public sectors and across political parties--have led to increased near-term political uncertainty…We continue to believe that economic weakness exacerbates execution risk. We now expect the contraction in real GDP to be deeper and longer’

S&P - as per Bespoke Invest the S&P 500 has now seen 11 "all or nothing days" in the last 15 trading days. That's a new record going back to at least 1990 (an all or nothing day defined as the net number of advancing issues  in the S&P 500 for a given day is either above +400 or below -400).  Funny conditions clearly…


...and should we expect a 'run at 7'?  Hmm. 

(h/t @sobata416) 

Despite falling crude oil prices it has not hurt M&A volumes in the space: 



Later – BoE interest rate thoughts today.  Good preview here.   Comments on poor UK data yesterday also worth listening out for. 

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