Thursday, 20 August 2015

Financial Orbit wrap 20/08/15

Five sentences or graphics which sum up the Financial Orbit output over the last 24 hours across the website, twitter account and anything else thought about...

1. US interest rates – implied interest rate probabilities now suggest US Fed rate rise 38% Sept probability, 67% by year end.  Noticeably lower than a day ago.  Nice write-up of views of many investment banks here

2. China –  This article suggests that the key level is 3,500 for the Shanghai bourse.  You can see what maybe they mean:

3. In my latest Share Prophets column I write about the prospects for Stock Spirits...and the Polish vodka market (link here). 

4. I write up the results of a bunch of Asian companies in two reports here and here.  Selected opportunities are building either directly or indirectly in the region. 

5. Otherwise a volatile day on markets - so basically building individual stock opportunities.    Observations I liked included: 

AAII Sentiment Survey: A new record for neutral sentiment! Above its historical avg of 31% for 33 consecutive weeks

Nasdaq now off 6% from its all-time high. First 6%+ pullback since the 9/2/14-10/15/14 period. 200-DMA broken as well...

US stocks ended Thursday at a six-month low (link here)
The S&P 500 fell 2.1 per cent to 2,035.76, hitting its lowest level since February and its largest one-day decline since February 2014. This was the S&P's seventh worst day since 2012.

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