Wednesday, 29 July 2015

Wednesday numbers frenzy...Europe: Sky and BATS

Lots of numbers out today all around the world.  A couple of quick write-ups...

On Sky impressed by combination of growth, low churn and cost cutting...but the charts from their presentation deck which really captured my imagination showed the juxtaposition of cost cuts with higher original content (with a net impact of higher profit margins):


We know content is king and no doubt influenced by the parent behaviour of 21st Century Fox the greater focus on own content can only bode well...


...especially when combined with the cost cutting opportunity from bringing together their UK, German and Italian operations (£200m of 'run rate synergies' looks like low-balling to me): 


So what price this?  Well with FY profitability at £1.4bn+ and free cash flow getting on for £1.1bn.  Well this does imply a mid-teens EV/ebit multiple but a still 5%+ free cash flow yield and it is the latter which still keeps me interested in the stock despite recent progress: 


Turning to British American Tobacco I think the key here remains FX which blighted the numbers as expected: 

The underlying comments here are fine enough with dividend progress (yielding 4.5%+) and strong pricing power but at a prospective mid x14s EV/ebit I can find cheaper/higher yielding plays in the sector.  A 5% yield would need to see more a lower £30s share price.  Given my high sector exposure elsewhere (Philip Morris, Altria, Imperial Tobacco I am chilling here for the time being). 

(Technically as per below I note the support sub £34 over the last year): 



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