Tuesday, 14 July 2015

Financial Orbit Wrap 14/07/15

Five sentences or graphics which sum up the Financial Orbit output over the last 24 hours across the website, twitter account and anything else thought about...

1. Hard to keep up with the Greece situation especially as in the last couple of hours Tsipras was giving further updates on the realities of the deal ('Tsipras rules out depositor bail-in, says EUR25bn contribution from banks will be enough to avoid bail in...Tsipras: Deal covers all of Greece's medium-term fiscal needs, it was a better deal than was on the table on 25/June')
I found this story fascinating - and concerning - however (link here):

IMF signals it could walk away from Greek bailout deal

Let's face it...as I said in my Yahoo Finance Contributors column a debt restructuring will eventually be required...

2. Ukraine – not happy as per this Financial Times story re the level of support given to Greece…but they are not part of the Eurozone…

3. I write up the Johnson & Johnson numbers with the observation that longer-term holders will still be happy (but the shares are not quite cheap enough for me to get excited): 

4. I wrote up my favourite charts from the BoA-ML Fund Manager Survey here:

No surprises where the biggest 'tail risks' are given the macro newsflow of the last few weeks...step forward Greece (aka 'Eurozone breakdown') and China. Strikingly the 'Fed falls behind-the-curve' option has completely...fallen off a cliff.  That says something about the evolution of the investment backdrop over the last month: 

5. Finally I also write up the JP Morgan and Wells Fargo numbers...neither works for me at prevailing despite general global banking sector enthusiasm (link here). 

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