Thursday, 16 July 2015

A few macro and related thoughts today

A few macro and related thoughts today...

Greece – unsurprisingly the Parliament voted ‘yes’ by 229 to 64.  Varoufakis voted ‘no’ and as one observer noted “The big question now is Tsipras stays or are 39 Noes & abstentions just too much?"

Greece #2 – Tsipras debate quotes: ‘I don’t believe the measures will benefit the economy…I had to choose between accepting a deal I disagreed with or a disorderly default!’  Crisis clearly not over, for example I note this headline in today’s FT: ‘IMF tactics in talks leave European officials baffled’.  My view remains sympathetic to an IMF one: without debt restructuring this will not sustainably go off the front pages…
And a good observation regarding the 'clustering' of sovereign debt defaults potentially below.  I totally agree...outside the troubled eurozone you have the Ukraine, Puerto Rico and then - of course - Japan.

(h/t @WorthWray)


Greece #3 – political structural impact: “EMU brutality in Greece has destroyed the trust of Europe's Left. The Left let itself become the enforcer of reactionary policies and mass unemployment because of the euro. Greece has broken the spell” (link here)


I wonder what Draghi is going to say about it all later at the ECB meeting...

US economy - The Beige Book, which provides anecdotal evidence from 12 regional branches of the Federal Reserve, said economic activity "expanded from mid-May through June".  Meanwhile later today Janet Yellen heads to the Senate for round two of her semi-annual report on monetary policy.  Yesterday she noted that ‘prospects are favourable for further improvement in the US labour market and the economy more broadly’.  


China – a bit of an up-and-down day.  South China Morning Post journalist said that ‘My gov sources tell me Beijing has "invited" some foreign investors to meet at CSRC to "help study & explain" causes for stock market crisis’ (sounds like a telling off / blame).  Meanwhile Chinese debt:GDP ratio at a new high as per this link


(h/t @fion_li)

Meanwhile in my continuing quest to show some different statistical insights into China, I thought this graphic below on the front page of today's Financial Times was worthy of note (and a little bit scary to be honest). 


Amazing progressive lack of city living affordability chart:

No surprises that the Japanese are locked into a negative frame of mind...one of the psychological challenges to Abenomics (but also let's face it with such high debt and poor demographics a hard trap to get out of)...

...and finally fascinating insights into the current range of geopolitical concerns globally. Should ISIS really be so highly ranked versus - say - the economy?

(h/t @IanBremmer) 

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