Thursday, 11 June 2015

A few macro and related thoughts this morning

Due to travel just time for a few notes and thoughts this morning: 

Greece -  pressure rising further? “ECB sets Greece a deadline of next week to come up clear prospect of an agreement or it will lift collateral requirements” (RANS)

Greece #2 - S&P lowers Greece's credit rating to CCC from CCC+ and believes that in the absence of a deal between Greece and creditors the Greek government will likely default in the next 12 months.  Meanwhile in a blow to deficit reduction, the Greek constitutional court's decisions to rule against the 2012 pension cuts said to cost government up to €1.5bn per year.

Just not good on this front and with chat around the Ukraine too concerning a worsening of their financial/budgetary fundamentals.  

M&A impact - Fitch: M&A Pace Increases Risk of US Companies Overleveraging (link here). Very, very true...there will be a lot of bad deals done at the moment in hindsight

Global growth - not too much text required to add to the thoughts of the World Bank

China - bunch of economic data out.  No shocker but tells you that further rate cuts (plus microeconomic tinkering of course) remains the reality: 

More rate cuts in Asia – and some slightly less than conventional reasons why.  It does remain a strange world...

Why rates were cut in Korea (“the Committee notes that the trend of decline in exports has accelerated and that consumption, which had been showing a recovery, appears to have contracted since the outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (Mers)”) and in New Zealand ("the fall in export commodity prices that began in mid-2014 is proving more pronounced.")

Interesting US state-by-state growth chart.  I wonder how this will look for FY15 given that many of the better areas in FY14 were oil producing ones...

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