Monday, 25 May 2015

Stories we should be thinking about

A few finance and related stories we need to be thinking about before Monday morning:

Macro matters:

An interesting short paper on energy prices and consumer spending with the conclusion that:

'rising gasoline prices surely contributed to the recent decline in consumer sentiment. But I suspect that other factors are more important'

Judging by the relative lack of direct correlation on this chart you can see why this may well be...

So if the bond market is an indicator then more equity market volatility to follow?

Nice M2/S&P chart by @Humblestudent in his longer piece here

Thoughtful on the underperformance of the transport sector and why it may be not be a market tell and just down to specifics (link here):

S&P 500 earnings growth for FY15e remains very low...

I was delighted to be re-introduced to 'the miser and his gold' story.  Link here.

Of course I like gold as an asset.  Here's the essence of why you should like it to as Smaulgld discusses China and gold here:

Company-related observations:

An excellent book review on the fall of Blackberry.  This extract gives a good feel 'is tempting to suggest here that the iPhone killed BlackBerry. But if you read the whole book you will find that perhaps it was not as inevitable as that. RIM wasted time producing a touch screen BlackBerry when it could have been re-architecting its product...It was also ahead of the game on mobile messaging with BlackBerry Messenger which could easily have, on its own, become WhatsApp or WeChat but RIM waited way too long to see its potential'

I liked this piece on McDonald's as it it very akin to my own thoughts here:

'To sum up, not only should short sellers of McDonald's be right in their thesis, but they should also have great timing skills. The high dividend and the aggressive buyback program make it even harder to profit from a short position'

Very thoughtful on Swatch (link here). 

I wrote on Deere's earnings on Friday (here).  I came across this nice EV/ebitda chart...still feels ok to me.  

And finally...

Super list of 10 non-investment quotes with investing lessons here.  And my favourite?  Well it has to be the critically important:
  • If you can't explain it to a six year old, you don't understand it yourself. - Albert Einstein
And what a fascinating chart on technology disruption:

Have a good (for most holiday shortened) week

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