Tuesday, 31 March 2015

Some macro charts and thoughts today

Bit more of a link and chart-fest today...

Greece – lots of excitable comments overnight by Tsipras e.g. 'Greek Gov’t Won't Continue Fire Sale Of State Assets, No More Recessionary Policies, No More Austerity...We seek compromise with our partners, we won't capitulate'.   Likely to easily see a compromise from this?  Hmm.  

UK economy - UK GfK Consumer Confidence (Mar) 4 vs. Exp. 2 (Prev. 1), highest since June 2002.  Interesting timing a month or so pre the election…


China – assisted by the authorities cutting the minimum downpayment required on second-home purchases to 40 per cent — from 50 to 60 per cent in most cities and 70 per cent in Beijing and Shanghai, China's Shenzhen Composite is closing in on a 40 per cent gain for the quarter. 13 gains in the last 14 sessions…

Great charts to indicate the exuberance from Capital Economics via Fast FT



Australia / iron ore - Dalian IronOre futures fresh contract low! CreditSuisse OIS now pricing in a 73% chance of a 25bps rate cut next week vs. yesterday's 59% (h/t @antbarton89)

US – some guy called Bernanke writing his inaugural blog post.  Apparently low interest rates due to low inflation… 

US #2
Income and spending figures from the Commerce Department put the savings rate at 5.8 per cent, up from 5.5 per cent in January and the highest since December 2012.  


So if they are saving are they not spending?  Oh...this:


Iran - Deal or no deal? What happens next after Iran nuclear talks climax.  Nice link here.  

El Nino - Ocean warming suggests 50 pct chance of El Nino-Australia.  Link here.  Biggest impact?  Agriculture...

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