Monday, 23 March 2015

Some macro and related stories today

Some macro and related stories today -

Greece/Germany meeting later today.  A nice warm-up here: ‘According to the Sunday edition of the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung (FAS), EU Commission experts in Athens have confirmed that the country's coffers would be able to finance salaries and wages until the second week of April…’

Meanwhile today’s FT front page says Greece ‘could run out of cash before the end of April’


The need for a compromise deal (debt haircut) goes up and up.  

Meanwhile in other news... the WSJ report that 'Greek authorities are escalating a criminal investigation against the head of the official statistics service, accused by some politicians of inflating the budget deficit to help Greece’s creditors justify the country’s unpopular bailout terms'.  What a conspiracy theory! 

Europe does have a problem though...as shown by European politics over the weekend.  In the Spanish local elections Podemos, the Spanish anti-austerity party, will be a prominent force in Andalusia’s regional parliament after it won 15 seats. However the Socialists will continue to govern the region as they won 47 seats. Meanwhile in the local French elections (first round) the right bloc edge out the Front Nationale, with President Hollande’s Socialists a clear third:


So not quite a revolution overnight...but certainly enough to shake people...and all this despite QE/easy comp induced better monetary fundamentals which are slowly moving into day-to-day economic realities: 


Of course such stimulus has become an almost global norm as wonderfully shown by this chart: 


(h/t @DA_Stockman)

And the overspills of it?

China – Shanghai Composite: 9th consecutive day of gains...longest streak since 2007. 99.5% of Shanghai stocks now above their 50-DMA (RANS).  The power of stimulus hopes…
 
Gold - Last week was the 8th week in a row that Gold had broken the previous week's low...sequence has not extended to 9 weeks for at least 22 years...


Japan - Japanese 2-yr notes have been untraded at Japan Bond Trading Co. (largest inter-dealer debt broker), since March 18!


Still remains a strange world out there...and one where S&P 500 earnings hopes for FY 15 continue to come down closer and closer to zero: now 1.3% only. 


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