Thursday, 5 March 2015

Finance stories and charts today

A few macro and related stories today...

ECB meet in Cyprus, focus no doubt QE implementation timing and Greece thoughts.  Solid preview here.  Roll on 1245/1330 GMT! 

Thoughts on ultra-low inflation going to be important too –

Good indicator of the ‘bubble-like’ move in European equities YTD via today’s Lex column:

China – National People’s Congress thoughts.  7% annual growth target (15 year low) grabs the headlines BUT so much more e.g. ‘deepen reform of SoE…keep yuan at a reasonable, balanced level’, wider budget deficit 2.3% GDP to help economy, 12% M2 growth suggest money supply boost not coming through.  Certainly not as easy a top-down market...but via continued reforms not impossible either.  It could be worse...(see below)

Brazil – a central bank that RAISES rates.  Up 50 Basis Points To 12.75%, Unanimous Decision. Lower subsidies on energy and fuel prices has fuelled inflation (annualised rate of 7.14 per cent) exceeding the central bank`s target range of 4.5%.  Brazilian real at a decade plus low however near 3BRL=$1

Asset price performance reminder YTD – Japan and Brent riding high whilst emerging almost the same as developed.  Of course all in local...but looking at the actual numbers always throws up a few surprises...

Global earnings growth ‘EM Asia is the only region of the world in which sales are expected to growth north of 10% and EPS are expected to grow at least 5%. For everyone else - that is NA, Europe, Developed Asia, LatAm, and Eastern Europe - more muddling remains the reality’. My MUST READ today (link here)

US misery index at multi-year lows – but low wage growth / high debt combo more influential?

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