A few macro and related stories today...
ECB meet in Cyprus, focus no doubt QE implementation timing and Greece thoughts. Solid preview here. Roll on 1245/1330 GMT!
Thoughts on ultra-low inflation going to be important too –
Good indicator of the ‘bubble-like’ move in European equities YTD via today’s Lex column:
China – National People’s Congress thoughts. 7% annual growth target (15 year low) grabs the headlines BUT so much more e.g. ‘deepen reform of SoE…keep yuan at a reasonable, balanced level’, wider budget deficit 2.3% GDP to help economy, 12% M2 growth suggest money supply boost not coming through. Certainly not as easy a top-down market...but via continued reforms not impossible either. It could be worse...(see below)
Brazil – a central bank that RAISES rates. Up 50 Basis Points To 12.75%, Unanimous Decision. Lower subsidies on energy and fuel prices has fuelled inflation (annualised rate of 7.14 per cent) exceeding the central bank`s target range of 4.5%. Brazilian real at a decade plus low however near 3BRL=$1
Asset price performance reminder YTD – Japan and Brent riding high whilst emerging almost the same as developed. Of course all in local...but looking at the actual numbers always throws up a few surprises...
Global earnings growth – ‘EM Asia is the only region of the world in which sales are expected to growth north of 10% and EPS are expected to grow at least 5%. For everyone else - that is NA, Europe, Developed Asia, LatAm, and Eastern Europe - more muddling remains the reality’. My MUST READ today (link here)
US misery index at multi-year lows – but low wage growth / high debt combo more influential?