Tuesday, 27 January 2015

Charts and thoughts today

A big reporting day today...both sides of the Atlantic (if the east coast can struggle through the snow). So a few headlines...and observations. 
Chinese Industrial Profits (Dec) Y/Y -8.0% vs. Prev. -4.2%; biggest fall on record....StatsBureau blames HIGHER COSTS & LOWER PRICES

Not so great...but at least deals are happening: 

China 2014 M&A Activities Record 6,899 Deals Valued At $407b – PWC

Perhaps no surprises that the Shanghai bourse is down over 1% today (although still above the 3, 300 level so hardly weak...)

Meanwhile in Japan I smiled at this headline: 

Japan EcoMin Amari: There Could Be Some Leeway In Meeting Inflation Target Given Drop In Oil

The slow slide of Abenomics continues...

Turning to the big European macro story a lot being made in Greece that Tsipras's first meeting with a foreign ambassador since being elected Greek PM was with Russia's Andrey Maslov…  Here's an interesting link on Greek/Russian inter-relations (link here).  

Meanwhile The Telegraph here gave some important future timings:

‘Liquidity support for Greek banks spiked to €54bn at the end of December, and is rising fast. If the ECB were to pull the plug, Greece would spiral into a systemic crisis immediately. Yet that could in theory happen as soon February 28 when the temporary extension on Greece’s bail-out package expires. The final drama will occur in July and August when Greece has to repay €7bn to the ECB’

You can see what they mean:

And where is the money owed?

Lots of scope for 'further discussions' here...

Meanwhile with Russia being downgraded to junk the rouble has been all over the place (although stabilised in Asian trading and still way off those late 2014 lows).  

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