Sunday, 22 April 2018

Stories we should be thinking about

Stories we should be thinking about


Let’s start with Brexit or - more specifically - the rise and rise of soft Brexit as
noted here:


‘Pro-Leave sources told City A.M. that some "sensible" Brexiters were increasingly
coming around to the idea, as long as it was positioned as a finite extension to the
transition period'


A longer transitional period sounds good, correct?  Well, the trouble is Brexit
is a negative in an absolute sense...it is a question of how much management of
the situation takes place.  Take this story, for example:


"snapshot of an industry struggling with uncertainty around Brexit, decline in diesel
demand & a particularly strong March last year when buyers seized the chance to
purchase cars before new vehicle excise duty rates came into force that April"


Meanwhile in Europe I quite liked the chart below showing the likely timings over
the next year or two re a tightening of European Central Bank policy:


Another indication of progressively tighter money in the world’s most advanced
economies.  So what does this mean for currencies?  
I liked this via @AndreasSteno:

‘While classic rates spreads have not been able to explain the recent moves in
the G10 space, relative curvature is...Relative 2s5s continue to indicate more
upside for EUR/USD’
Interesting point.  Now a higher euro should also inspire European reform
which, for me, is the critical aspect of the future of Europe debate over the
next few months. Loved these cartoons from this wonderful selection:


To read the rest of Stories we should be thinking about click HERE. 

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