Sunday, 21 January 2018

Stories we should be thinking about

Stories we should be thinking about

Got to start with the current market euphoria as I read in the Weekend
Financial Times that:

‘Excitement replaces fear as forecasts point to accelerating global
growth (link here) as ‘upward revisions are now the order of the day and in
the Autumn of 2017, the IMF improved its global forecast for the following year
for the first time since 2009’

Well that’s all very exciting...and so it should be the case given the stimulus
at the margin by global Central Banks over recent years.  

And so with all this get optimism (link here)

And questions/statements like this:

Will The Stock Market Ever Decline Again?

This may be a sign of the times…
(above chart link here)

...but it raises a number of good questions especially as:

‘The market correlation to earnings is .94 or nearly 1.0. As is said often,
stock prices tend to follow earnings’ as noted in (this already observed
worryingly titled but thoughtful piece).  

My thought?  Well as @EconguyRosie observes:

Earnings-led rally? If the SPX had risen with earnings since QE2 was unveiled
seven years ago, it would be trading below 1,800!

When everyone is already excited time to take some profits...

To read the rest of Stories we should be thinking about click
HERE for free access.

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