Friday, 5 February 2016

The last week on Financial Orbit

Not an easy week on financial markets swinging between bouts of euphoria and pessimism.  In terms of some important charts I would highlight the potentially deeply influential push down of the US dollar which has the scope to give the world a completely different risk tone as this excellent graphic contrasting the first week of January and February in various global currency markets shows:
Financial Orbit Macro chronicled every business day morning the evolving macroeconomic scene. My favourite charts of the week?  Probably the two below highlighting first the pick-up yield available even in US equities today versus medium duration bonds...

...a relationship even more apparent in other parts of the world like Europe and Japan due to the preponderance of negative bond yields as shown below.

Value (equities) and sentiment/moment (negative yielding bonds) combining with ever more dovish central bank action at a time of ever-duller headline economic growth rates versus expectations equates to a heady macroeconomic brew.  Fascinating times as covered by Financial Orbit Macro

The last week or so has been a very heavy corporate results period with multiple numbers and related updates for Financial Orbit Stocks to appraise.  Among the stocks and themes covered in the once a business day updates on the two Financial Orbit preferred lists included:
  • Thoughts on earnings season reporters GlaxoSmithKline, Royal Dutch Shell and Yum! Brands;
  • Comments on BHP Billiton, AIA and LafargeHolcim;
  • Thoughts on the bid (and numbers) from Syngenta plus the updates from Gilead and Dow Chemical;
  • Thoughts on updates from Nokia and UBS plus some further insights on BHP Billiton, Royal Dutch Shell, Wal-Mart and GlaxoSmithKline;
  • Thoughts on Royal Dutch Shell, Philip Morris International and Yum! Brands conference calls plus some observations on UBS (vs Credit Suisse) and insights on the Umicore full year numbers;
  • Thoughts on the January performance of the preferred list stocks.  Specific company mentions include Schlumberger, Gilead and Royal Dutch Shell

Finally Financial Orbit Immediate also covered the global earnings season generally outside the range of my preferred stocks.  A selection of the topics written up is below - what a busy week!
  • Some thoughts on CME, Tyson Foods and Estee Lauder;
  • Some thoughts on Statoil, Credit Suisse and Vodafone;
  • Some thoughts on Royal Dutch Shell, Philip Morris International and Yum! Brands;
  • Some thoughts on Mastercard, Honeywell and Whirlpool; 
  • Some thoughts on Novo Nordisk, ADP and Eaton Corp;
  • Some thoughts on Alphabet (i.e. Google);
  • Some thoughts on economic updates from the European Commission and a new Bank of England Quarterly report;
  • Some thoughts on BP, Royal Dutch Shell, Exxon Mobile and Dow Chemical;
  • Some thoughts from industrial or industrial agricultural names that reported today on a cash flow basis.  Stock reviewed: Emerson Electric, ADT, ADM and Agco;
  • Some thoughts on numbers from Timken, Mondelez and GlaxoSmithKline;
  • Some thoughts on Daimler, Volvo, Toyota and Arcelor Mittal;
  • Thoughts on Amazon and Visa 

If you would like to receive any of the above reports or join any of the above mailing lists then contact me (or read more here or at the tab above). 

Chris Bailey
Founder, Financial Orbit
Twitter: @financial_orbit


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