Sunday, 31 January 2016

Stories we should be thinking about

A few finance and related stories we need to be thinking about before Monday morning:

Macro matters:

How was January for you?

It really was a rough tough January for Chinese stocks:

(h/t @HaidiLun)

And another change in January: fewer rate rises expected from the US in 2016:

Not helped of course by a lack of material wage inflation still in the US: 

Of course much of the volatility was sourced from the energy markets.  I note late on Friday:

Opec increases #oil production by 48k barrel per day in Jan. Output hits fresh high at 33.113mln bbl/d.

And as Bespoke Invest observed inventories are very high still: 

Of course all of this is causing pressures:

'IMF calculations suggests Saudi Arabia could be running a deficit of around $140bn (£94bn), far above the government's own estimates of around $98bn, or 15pc of GDP'.  Interesting report here...I bet the oil price rise of the last week was celebrated in Riyadh.

So why did the oil price rise?  A good read on US oil (link here). 

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Saturday that she expected most of the refugees from Syria and Iraq to return home once peace has returned to their countries (link here).

Meanwhile there seems to be some slightly lunatic thinking out of the European Commission...never a good look to be looking to charge charities...

And then there are the age old problems for Europe - like debt and non-performing loans - which still have not been solved:

Brazil's per capita income will take ten years to return to 2013 levels (link here).

How you perceive gold returns probably depends on what your base currency is: 

I liked this on autonomous self-driving cars: 

'We are a LONG way from being able to buy that kind of car for less than $40,000, which is what it would take too. Some of the insiders say we’re 15 years away from such a car. Some say even more'.

Which emerging market region had the greatest champagne growth recently?  Step forward Africa:
Talking about the emerging markets interesting on the growth of financial access: 

Still, let's not forget that there is still hunger out there: 

Company-related observations:

Very good piece from @MaikeCurrie on dividend sustainability and the need to stock pick in the Weekend FT (link here). Yes I would agree that a number of these names do not have sustainable dividends...but some do:

Don't trust those your own research.  Would have certainly been wise in 2015 as noted here by @WallStreet_rant:

How is this earnings season going from a sector perspective?  Energy leading something: 

I see Tesco's are reducing some overtime pay premiums (link here).

This is interesting: "What Facebook should do with the extra $30 billion in market cap it made yesterday: Buy Snapchat"

Pretty ugly IPO market: 

Consumer discretionary versus consumer staples kind of interesting.  I am currently finding many more opportunities in the former rather than the latter: 

Of course to watch corporate debt levels.  

And finally...

Here's an excellent read for the early riser fraternity (of which I have been a member for two decades plus):

“Before the rest of the world is eating breakfast,” writes Laura Vanderkam in What the Most Successful People Do Before Breakfast “the most successful people have already scored daily victories that are advancing them toward the lives they want.”

(h/t @farnhamstreet). 

Mentions of countries in Obama's first 2,000 speeches as President.  Where's the UK?

(h/t @paul1kirby)

And I finally ahead of another busy earnings season week this made me laugh via @PlanMaestro:

Have a good week.  Don't forget to sign up for a free trial of my new macro, stocks and other reports (link here).

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