Sunday, 24 January 2016

Stories we should be thinking about

A few finance and related stories we need to be thinking about before Monday morning:


Macro matters:

A better week then after the bounce of the last few days...

(sourced here)

...and the bounce has been in dramatic in some sector inevitably energy and materials:

(h/t @bespokeinvest)

Still history suggests that unless we move into a recession post a bear market anything is possible (although of course technically the US did not enter a bear market so far this month): 

Consistent with such potential opportunities I enjoyed this via @jbjakobsen which indicates there are currently potential opportunities:


Talking about the US market, kind of interesting to see the share of earnings in the S&P500 which is much more manufacturing centric than perhaps you would naturally think...

(h/t @Lemieux_26)

...and of course this means that the strong US dollar is having an impact...which you can also see in the difference the GDP rank and that of PPP (recall last week's chart showing that most currencies are undervalued against the US dollar): 


So how was Davos for you?  A useful piece here highlighting six predictions from the World Economic Forum:


One of the big fears has of course been the emerging markets.  Big outflows still...

...and look at those credit rating downgrades: 


Still as this piece notes the average European strategist remains optimistic - well hopes are always high at the start of the year despite YTD volatility.

'The worst start in years for European stocks is doing little to dim the view of the region’s strategists, who are mostly holding on to calls for gains of almost 20 percent through December'


Of course much of this is centred on the continued roll-out of Eurozone QE. 

Talking about Europe kind of interesting to see some of the fiscal consolidation differentials: Greece is doing rather better than say the UK... Note the average is showing little improvement.  

(h/t @topmoneycharts)

I liked this on employment rates around the world.  Greece not looking so good on this measure: 


Talking about labour and labour markets, the below indicates that by no means is the European migrant crisis over: 

So where are you going to make money over the next little while?  Alternatives and not bonds...

(h/t @panthera_s)

...but property ranking so well?  Not obviously cheap in prime property zones... 

...and talking about the crazy London property market I noted this in today's Financial Times

Back to the markets.  Oil has been a big (negative) signalling mechanism over recent weeks so kind of interesting to see that the Russians are thinking of hedging:


 The Saudi's at Davos of course are somewhat more predictable in their views:


Of course supply and demand are much closer on oil than most people think: 


Back to Russia (and China) interesting to see their continued reserve accumulation of gold (link here): 
Meanwhile did you see just how much of the global gold production China absorbs?  Stay long gold. 

 (h/t @PopescuCo)


Company-related observations:

How has the earnings season been for you?  Still early days but the usual combination of (on average) better earnings and lower revenues on offer...


...and it is going to be a very busy next few weeks: 


Meanwhile the S&P 500's earnings look finely poised...back to the influence of that high US dollar again: 

(h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)

Via the weekend Financial Times "after adjusting for their net cash, Alphabet was worth $424bn yesterday, compared with Apple’s $399bn"

(h/t @jackdamn)

Wow...Trefis highlight just how limited the profits for Volkswagen are from selling a VW branded car: 


A few stories from today's Sunday Times:

On Glaxo 'an activist American hedge fund has taken a secret stake in GlaxoSmithKline...Och-Ziff Capital Management has a holding of about 0.5%'

Diageo - 'will unveil a 2% slip in its crucial American market'

Standard Chartered - 'draws blank in hunt for chairman' 

'Royal Dutch Shell is expected to seal its takeover of rival oil and gas producer BG this week, with shareholders of both companies likely to vote in favour of the tie-up' 

And I have just read that:

Johnson Controls in advanced talks to combine with Tyco International; deal could be up to $20 billion  


And finally...

Very good on various germ myths (link here).


And did you know this?

Have a good week.  Don't forget to sign up for a free trial of my new macro, stocks and other reports (link here).

No comments:

Post a Comment