Sunday, 3 January 2016

Stories we should be thinking about

A few finance and related stories we need to be thinking about before Monday morning:

Macro matters:

Welcome to 2016.  Surely it is not going to be as bad as this? (h/t @simonting)

Want to know the key anticipated finance and political events upcoming in 2016?  Great link here. For example in January we have (among other events):

Taiwan holds an election and may choose its first female president.

U.S. begins production of liquefied natural gas for export from Cheniere Energy's terminal in Louisiana, the first since 1969. 
World leaders gather for the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. 
Vietnam's Communist Party Congress convenes to make leadership changes and set policy.
UN monitors may conclude that Iran has implemented all steps required under July nuclear accord, allowing the U.S. and Europe to lift sanctions.

Of course one of the big global events of 2016 is the US Presidential election. On a related basis a good read is this: 'Trump’s hope: a recession puts him in the White House' (link here).

2015 was a great year for the US dollar.  How does the greenback perform in election years?

Whilst it was a great year for the US dollar wasn't 2015 a terrible year for gold?  Well it depends in which currency terms you are looking in. As @Smaulgld noted: 'Gold was flat vs the Euro in 2015 after rising over 12% in 2014' and up sharply in a number of other currencies including the Australian dollar and a range of emerging currencies.

Above I mentioned Iran and the potential upcoming lifting of sanctions. Fear of the impact of Iranian oil supply has hurt the energy market over recent weeks but just maybe that fear may be overstated as noted by the Iranians themselves here:

"The decision on the amount of exports highly depends on the future condition of the market. We will raise our market quota steadily," said Mohsen Qamsari, director general for international affairs of the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC).

Good demographics piece here which covers not only the potentially negative economic impacts but also the historic (data up to 2009) from net migration...

...Europe certainly has the migrant inflow

The key to Chinese property performance over recent times has been tier 1 location, location, location:

Portugal/Italy/Greece/Spain top of a large 'developed' country list for something...

...meanwhile talking about inequality indicators and Gini coefficients:

Not the greatest news out of Indonesia earlier on Sunday: 

'Indonesia missed its target for economic growth in 2015 because of a global slowdown, according to the Finance Ministry, which reported initial estimates for a larger-than-expected budget deficit and an undershoot on inflation for the year'

Back to much for the January effect (over the last 10 years):

(h/t @RyanDetrick)

Company-related observations:

'If we combine the price/sales (PS) and revenue growth rates (G), we get what we’ll call a PSG ratio which puts the companies on similar footing. By this measure, we see AirBnB falls into a reasonable range compared to these public-market peers'.  Useful report here.  

I enjoyed this from Trefis on Twitter.  Certainly a bullish view!

First big deal of 2016 imminent? Chat that Shire in advanced talks with Baxalta:

I liked this list of insider purchase plays which included names such as Mondelez and Emerson Electric I have talked about before.

A few stories from today's Sunday Times:

Ailing Debenhams woos ex-Kingfisher chief for chairman

Tips of the year included Barclays, Drax, Diageo, GVC, Travis Perkins, Grainger and Imagination Technologies.  

And finally...

An interesting list of some anniversaries that are occurring in 2016 including:

'Quadricentennial of Shakespeare’s Death, April 23, 1616.

If you have ever used the words bedroom, lonely, or zany, or phrases like “all’s well that ends well,” “catch a cold,” or “it was Greek to me,” you owe a debt to  William Shakespeare'

Apparently as per @WorldandScience:

Have a good week.  Don't forget to sign up for a free 30 day trial of my new macro, stocks and other reports (link here).  Sign up and receive tomorrow (4 January) my '16 macro themes for 2016' and top stock picks for 2016 thoughts.  

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