Tuesday, 22 December 2015

Paychex - solid near Christmas quarterly results update

We really are right near the end of the corporate results season among larger cap stocks.  Nike reports later but earlier today the outsourcing company Paychex gave their quarterly update. I last discussed the stock back in September (link here) including an extensive review of the stock's opportunity with a conclusion at a c. US$46-47 share price that:

So many thematic (regulation, outsourcing) positives. The question I have is more what you pay.  
I like the ungeared balance sheet (EV c. US$16bn) and if I extrapolate the below-noted profitability I could see prospectively a mid x13s EV/ebit...


...which actually is pretty reasonable especially for a company with no debt (and judging by the conference call no huge willingness to do a lot).  The 3.4% dividend yield is also nicely covered too.  
Overall I am pretty impressed, far more than I thought I would be.  I am looking for an opportunity to get involved.  Sub US$40 feels a double up level.

Since then the share has pushed up a little...


...and as I write the shares are slightly up on the day broadly inline with my observation on Twitter that I was...

Listening to the conf call. Solid outsourcing name, just a question of buying it on pullbacks.

After all they did not change the forward guidance:


However it was not a flawless report...

blurring later in yr nos due acquisition impacts & at margin trends. Came over touch poorly. Share -2.4%. Fwd <x14 EV/ebit <48 a level

However with a continued effectively debt free balance sheet, a 3%+ dividend yield (and higher inherent cash flow than this) plus a continued share buyback there is still plenty of positives.  The tone of the conference call remained opportunistic.  As noted above below US$48 a share is a level that I can make work.  Patience until then. 

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