Wednesday, 30 December 2015

Financial Orbit wrap 30/12/15

Five sentences or graphics which sum up the Financial Orbit output over the last 24 hours across the website, twitter account and anything else thought about...

1. A few macro thoughts on this penultimate day of 2015...

...did you pick the correct markets to back during the whole year?  Excellent chart from Bespoke Invest:

2. UK wages - Average wage growth next year will trail far below official forecasts. Pay will rise by about 2%, significantly below the 3.5% predictions from the Bank of England and the Office for Budget Responsibility, according to the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development. The shortfall reflects larger businesses budgeting for the apprenticeship levy that comes into force in 2017 and smaller companies with fewer than 30 employees having to pay extra pension costs (The Times).  Not the greatest for consumption levels which - of course - is two-thirds plus of the economy…

What else did I find interesting on a relatively uneventful day?

3. Brazil -

Anyone got a 1st cover of the year index? Contrarian opportunity?!

4. Russia - the Markit Russian manufacturing PMI called for more stimulus as the index fell below 50:

“The headline PMI figure slipping below the crucial 50.0 mark will come as disappointing news to the Russian manufacturing sector, having seen a stabilisation over the previous two months. “Production and new orders returned to contraction territory in December, reflecting weak demand conditions, particularly from export clients. As a result, job shedding continued amid a lack of pressure on capacity among manufacturers. “For what, in the most part, has been a difficult 2015 for goods producers, recent months appeared to signal a shift in the sector to a higher gear. However, latest survey figures suggest manufacturers may endure a challenging start to 2016 unless some action can be taken to stimulate demand for goods.”

5. Sentiment - am musing about my 2016 thoughts (out in a couple of days) and found this from @michaelsantoli kind of interesting:

Easy to forget how bulled-up folks were as 2014 ended. AAII bulls/bears year ago 51%/19%, now 26%/31%. II poll then 56%/15%, now 38%/29%.

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