Monday, 28 December 2015

Financial Orbit wrap 28/12/15

Five sentences or graphics which sum up the Financial Orbit output over the last 24 hours across the website, twitter account and anything else thought about...

It may be a bank holiday here in the UK...but I have been working away on understandably not the busiest finance day.

1. China – big falls in Chinese shares today. Why? First mainland B Share trading is T+3, so year-end liquidity squeeze comes in today (h/t @simongting for this observation). Second, industrial profits slipped to 672.1 billion yuan ($103.8 billion) in November from year-earlier levels, the National Bureau of Statistics said on its website Sunday. Profit for state-owned enterprises tumbled 9.5% in the first 11 months, according to a statement on the Ministry of Finance’s website.  I am not over-interpreting this and remain a supporter of the 'the rise of the Chinese consumer' as one of the biggest global investment themes again in 2016.

Still, there are charts like this below circulating showing what the average financial commentator is worried about (link here): 

2. Really, really pleased how my 2015 tips of the year worked out (link here).  

So what's the final results?  10 HITS, 2 NEUTRALS and 3 MISSES.  I am very pleased with that.  Of course I would have hoped to add a bit of value around the edges through trading throughout the year plus new and different opportunities but if I can continue such a ratio of HITS to MISSES into 2016 - with the requisite required risk control - then I will be very happy.

My 2016 preferred stock thoughts of course will follow in the next few days.

3. Interesting to see the earnings profile of Europe...

Been -ve earnings momentum in pan-Europe indices since July. 4%+ EPS growth FY15e despite fall + QE. '16e dull.

...and for the US for FY15e and FY16e:

earnings FY15e now anticipated to be flat. As for FY16e still mid/high single digits but -ve momentum. Hmm.

4. Nice graphic on global currencies via @enlundm for which I observed:

A bout of weakness would really help to sort out some of the imbalances angst in today's global economy

5. We will see about 'holiday trading' over the next few weeks but this report highlights some of the uncertainties with more online purchasing and strange weather.  Nice link: 

Online/convenience society breaking up retail norms "Late rush may have turned holiday season around "

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