Wednesday, 23 December 2015

Financial Orbit wrap 23/12/15

Five sentences or graphics which sum up the Financial Orbit output over the last 24 hours across the website, twitter account and anything else thought about...

1. Macro - still an unusual world?  Absolutely.  Great chart citing the pre global financial crisis boom and bust as well as QE inspired 'recovery' via @Mick_Peel:

2. The latest Financial Orbit Speaks is out:

Published on 23rd December 2015 - link here
In this week's global investing enhanced podcast Chris Bailey of Financial Orbit reviews his 15 macroeconomic calls for 2015 from a year ago to see whether he had more 'hits' than 'misses'.  Subjects covered include currency wars, China, junk bonds, Greece, Abenomics, the information revolution, real wage growth and bottom fishing in Russia

3. Oil - had a good day as I noted in a couple of tweets:

"OPEC reference basket...is seen rising to $70 a barrel by 2020" Opec lowers long-term oil demand estimates

...and in response to the much more solid than expected inventory numbers...

DOE US Crude Oil Inventory Change (WoW) Dec-18: -5877K (est 1200K; prev 4801K)

...Merry Christmas embattled oil sector

US crude oil futures settle higher by $1.36 (3.76%) at $37.50

4. Yes, it really was that kind of day with the much maligned mining sector catching a bid from the rumour that (sourced via Fast FT):

Steel and iron ore groups are getting a hefty boost, after Chinese news agency Xinhua saidChina is considering a “fund to cut excessive steel output”, citing the China Iron and Steel Association.

5. Earlier in the day updated (and slightly disappointing) UK GDP numbers came out.  And the killer insight surely another growth disappointment versus original hopes...


...despite ultra-low savings rates (excellent chart via @samueltombs)...


...and unsurprisingly rising borrowing helping to fuel the consumer economy. 



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