Wednesday, 9 December 2015

Financial Orbit wrap 09/12/15

Five sentences or graphics which sum up the Financial Orbit output over the last 24 hours across the website, twitter account and anything else thought about...

1. German/Greece – temperature rising again: German FinMin Schaeuble: Not in interests of Greece to question the IMF's involvement in its aid programme. Greece gov't spox hits back & says Fund's stance is "unacceptably harsh".

Meanwhile thinking about global QE…recall that the ECB is at the margin very important.  My view: ECB QE still being used as a prop in lieu of proper coordinated regional structural reform...

2. Global FX and markets - high volatility in mining and energy shares but a later recovery as the euro pushes up above 1.10.  A week to the Fed and the dollar is perhaps starting to arrive rather than travel. 

Volatile markets but ultimately the weaker dollar/stronger euro combo is a better one for global balance.  Maybe from this lower base we will get our second half of December Santa rally after all!

3. I write up the latest Smith & Wesson numbers and conclude that I am still 'keeping some bullets in the chamber' even though at above the US$20 level I let some more stock go. 

4. I also write up the latest Ashtead numbers and conclude that the UK listed but largely US centred plant hire company is still worth a look despite a decent share price move today: 

5. What else?  I write on Twitter after listening to the Yahoo reversal presentation on unbundling their Alibaba stake: 

Putting the and share prices on top of one another nice way to show waxing/waning of spin-out/sale hopes

As I noted here at the time of the Q3 results season I still like Alibaba stock on its own.  

Elsewhere I am quoted (thanks @firstadopter) here on the Dow Chemical - DuPont potential deal which - as this chart from Fast FT - shows at nicely over US$100bn in size would be the biggest chemicals/related deal in history if anything happens:

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