European harmonisation – ‘Brussels is to propose the creation of a standing European border force that can take control of the bloc’s external borders – even if a government objects – in a move that would arguably mean the biggest transfer of sovereignty since the creation of the single currency’ (FT). The migrant crisis has had large implications…
Greece – Greek government runs "Call for Applications" ad for Gen-Sec Public Revenue position in yesterday’s FT. Deadline: 4 days ago! Deadlines mean little in anything to do with Greek revenue collection? Meanwhile ‘Foreign Investors Tiptoe Through Minefield of Greek Banking System’ (link here).
Germany – Weidmann said yesterday that the ‘Weak euro adds to German current account surplus’. He’s not kidding, in the first 3Q of 2015, Germany's current account surplus equated to 7.9% of GDP. That’s a big distortion and shows the need for either European domestic regional reform or a higher euro.
US markets - A close Friday below 2088.5 in S&P futures would mark the 2nd consecutive week of losses. Run has not extended for 47 weeks. Meanwhile YTD the top ten stocks in the S&P500 are up 21%. The other 490 are down an average of 3%. This is the biggest differential since 1999 (stats highlighted by Predicted Mkts & Jim Cramer respectively).
Meanwhile talking about US markets…a rate rise expected by 97%...
…and the US dollar still warming up for its post rate hike fall?
Meanwhile high yield indices fall to new recent lows...
…and distress seems to be spreading across different sectors:
Worthwhile noting this research showing that private creditors get hurt a lot more in any debt haircuts. Not too difficult a prediction to anticipate more debt haircut chat in 2016 in not just sovereign bonds but corporate bonds too...
...especially with corporate margins where they are:
Just where are stock markets versus historical highs? Great chart via @MktOutperform. Greece leading something!
And finally...Climate change - It’s the last day of COP21, and world leaders have been working nonstop to reach an agreement on how to combat global warming. Will it be more than…hot air? :-)