Wednesday, 9 December 2015

A few macro thoughts today

A few macro thoughts today...

German/Greece – temperature rising again: German FinMin Schaeuble: Not in interests of Greece to question the IMF's involvement in its aid programme. Greece gov't spox hits back & says Fund's stance is "unacceptably harsh". 

Meanwhile thinking about global QE…recall that the ECB is at the margin very important.  My view: ECB QE still being used as a prop in lieu of proper coordinated regional structural reform...


Asia - China CPI (YoY) Nov: 1.5% (exp 1.4% prev 1.3%), China PPI (YoY) Nov: -5.9% (exp -6.0 prev -5.9%).  Higher inflation than anticipated could suggest China’s massive stimulus is taking effect, though producer prices continued to fall, marking their 45th consecutive monthly drop.


(h/t @Callum_Thomas)

Meanwhile Chinese yuan at a another 4 year low



And the rationale?  Get a weakening in before the Fed does something:


Shows to me once again the importance of the strength of the US dollar...

See what I mean!


(h/t @bespokeinvest)

Canada – Bank of Canada indicates may join negative rates ‘experiment’ as the impact from weak commodity prices (hit by the strong US dollar amongst other factors) 



Talking about commodities...

Oil –high volatility recently but this article notes: the consensus forecast is $53, implying average prices will barely rise next year compared to 2015 (link here). 

Where’s the sector economic strength?  Financials > materials!  No surprises there given the above. 




And finally From 3D selfies to more cybersecurity woes - are these the 10 consumer trends that will define 2016? Interesting link here.  

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