Thursday, 3 December 2015

A few macro thoughts today...

A few macro thoughts today...

ECB day – despite a lot of the polls and commentary beforehand there is debate e.g. German Banking Group: ECB Playing With Risk (Handelsblatt) and I note the ‘source reports’ which indicate that the #ECB's macroeconomic projections are to be largely unchanged. Nice preview here and I also liked this picture from today's Financial Times:


And just to add a few more curveballs, this quote from the Irish PMI services data this morning: 

forward looking Expectations component rose to its
highest level in almost 12 years in November, with
more than 20 times as many respondents
anticipating an increase in activity over the coming
year compared to those expecting a contraction. It is
clear that Irish services companies remain very
upbeat on the prospects for their sector in spite of
the more unsettled global backdrop

Of course surely nothing to do with their low tax rate!!

Referendum day – not the UK referendum but the Danish one.  Denmark’s 7th referendum and ‘is in theory about whether Denmark should swap its opt-out on EU justice and home affairs matters for an opt-in…but the plebiscite has become a clarion call for eurosceptics keen on fighting against the power of Brussels’ (FT)  

Interesting comment I saw: “The dominant emotion is mistrust and anger at politicians.”

Russia - Vladimir Putin addresses the nation. No details of the Russian president’s annual address have been released yet, and a spokesperson for the Kremlin denied that the talk will focus on the downing of a Russian jet last month.  Could be some interesting quotes later.

PMIs – In Asia the China composite PMI for November came in at 50.5, the first time it had broken through the 50-mark separating contraction from expansion since July.  Clearly improvement / impact of stimulus coming through.


Meanwhile in Japan the equivalent in Japan saw the composite purchasing managers index for November hit a five month low of 50.2 in November.

Ex the above watch the European PMIs.  Early ones include Russia Markit Services PMI (Nov): 49.8 (exp 47.9 prev 47.8), Ireland Investec Services PMI (Nov): 63.6 (prev 60.1)


Global liquidity – still poor...this reserve measure indicative of some of the problems in a higher US dollar world for a broader range of countries.  


(h/t @Eurofaultlines)


Oil pessimism still -
World's Top Oil Traders Don't Expect Recovery Any Time Soon (link here).  Probably the best news for oil price appreciation potential...no-one believes it!  I note after a bad day yesterday, oil rebounding a little today...



(h/t @RANsquawk)

Interesting chart!  Certainly a specific position selection / active world.  This continues into 2016 in my view! 


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