Thursday, 24 December 2015

A few macro thoughts today

It may be Christmas Eve but there are a few residual macro thoughts to be thinking about...

Markets - In the US, rebounding oil prices helped to lift buyer sentiment, sending the S&P 500 up 1.2 per cent to 2,064. That’s just enough to place it into positive territory for the year, with a gain of 0.3 per cent. Dow posts triple-digit gain for third session in a row.

Oil – big bounce yesterday helped by the inventory data. Interesting to note that if you look all the way back to 1920 -- when the EIA's data on crude oil stocks begins -- December stands out for having the biggest drops in oil inventories of any month.  However stocks have built by 3.2 million barrels on average in January since 1921. Fascinating link here

US fixed income - the 10 Treasury in late December pretty much where it started 2015 (headline yield terms at least):

(h/t @richwesgoodman)

Spanish election fallout – Socialists reject a grand coalition with Rajoy as Prime Minister (whose Popular party s 53 seats short of an absolute majority).  More talks continue as noted here

Japan – BoJ minutes from Nov released.  Perhaps more interestingly lead BoJ adviser Suga notes that the ‘Bank Of Japan Still Has Room To Maintain Easing’.  Meanwhile Mr Abe once again ‘would Like Firms To Boost Wages More In 2016 Than In 2015’. Hmm!  Think he said that last year too...

Santa rally - Santa rally (last 5 day of yr and first 2 of next yr) starts today in the US.  Since '50, +1.42% avg up 78% of time. Santa Claus rally was down 2.96% last year (worst since 2000).  Hasn't been lower two years in a row since '93/'94 (statistics via @RyanDeTrick).  

So if it is the last 5 business days of the year…includes yesterday in the UK! Unless you are the Christmas Grinch don’t read this list of things that could go wrong in Europe in 2016! (link here).

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